magistrsko delo
Benjamin Bokan (Author), Iztok Palčič (Mentor), Gorazd Pravdič (Co-mentor)

Abstract

Magistrsko delo se osredotoča na problematiko napovedovanja proizvodnega programa v podjetju Arcont d.d.; v glavnem je razdeljeno na teoretični in praktični del. Teoretični del zajema prikaz procesa in pomena napovedovanja, ki mu sledi pregled kvalitativnih in kvantitativnih metod napovedovanja ter pregled načinov merjenja natančnosti napovedi. Praktični del magistrskega dela zajema izdelavo napovedi na podlagi realnih podatkov iz preteklosti. Z uporabo izbranih kvantitativnih metod napovedovanja smo izdelali dvajset napovedi za pet izbranih primerov. Metode, uporabljene pri napovedovanju, so: metoda enostavnih srednjih vrednosti, metoda drsečih srednjih vrednosti, metoda uteženih srednjih vrednosti in metoda enostavnega eksponentnega glajenja. Natančnost napovedi smo izračunali na podlagi primerjave napovedi z dejanskimi podatki. Odstopanja posameznih napak smo med seboj primerjali in tako določili najprimernejšo metodo napovedovanja za izbran primer. Metoda, ki se je v vseh primerih izkazala za najbolj natančno, je metoda uteženega drsečega povprečja.

Keywords

napovedovanje;natančnost napovedovanja;kvalitativne metode napovedovanja;kvantitativne metode napovedovanja;magistrska dela;

Data

Language: Slovenian
Year of publishing:
Typology: 2.09 - Master's Thesis
Organization: UM FS - Faculty of Mechanical Engineering
Publisher: [B. Bokan]
UDC: 005.521:658.51(043.2)
COBISS: 21180182 Link will open in a new window
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Other data

Secondary language: English
Secondary title: Forecasting of production program in company Arcont d.d.
Secondary abstract: This Master’s Thesis focuses on the issue of forecasting the production program of the company Arcont d.d. The Thesis is mainly divided into a theoretical and a practical part. The theoretical part displays the process and the importance of forecasting, followed by a review of qualitative and quantitative forecasting methods, and the overview of methods for measuring the accuracy of forecasting. The Practical part of the thesis includes forecasting on the basis of real data from the past. With the use of selected quantitative forecasting methods, we made twenty predictions for five selected cases. Methods used in forecasting: method of simple averages, method of moving averages, method of weighted averages, method of simple exponential smoothing. We have calculated the accuracy of the predictions by comparing predictions with actual data. We compared the deviations of individual errors with each other and thus determined the method of forecasting most suitable for the selected case. The Method, which proved to be the most accurate in all cases was the method of weighted moving averages.
Secondary keywords: forecasting;forecasting accuracy;qualitative forecasting methods;quantitative forecasting methods;
URN: URN:SI:UM:
Type (COBISS): Master's thesis/paper
Thesis comment: Univ. v Mariboru, Fak. za strojništvo, Proizvodne tehnologije in sistemi
Pages: X, 93 f.
ID: 10847656