ekonometrična analiza
Aleksander Krajcer (Author), Darja Boršič (Mentor)

Abstract

V delu diplomskega projekta smo s pomočjo ekonometričnih modelov skušali prikazati vpliv, ki ga je gospodarska kriza 2008 imela na produktivnost slovenskega gradbenega sektorja. V letih pred krizo je ta rasel po zavidljivih, morda celo previsokih stopnjah, s podobno intenzivnostjo pa je nato ta rast tudi upadla. V prvem delu smo postavili teoretično izhodišče o krizah in o gradbeništvu ter o njuni prepletenosti, v drugem delu pa bomo s pomočjo enostavnih regresijskih modelov skušali kvantificirati vpliv gospodarske krize na produktivnost dela v gradbenem sektorju. Produktivnost dela smo izbrali, ker je s strani OECD priporočana kot dobra mera za uspešnost gospodarstva ali sektorja, hkrati pa zaradi pomanjkanja četrtletnih podatkov o obsegu kapitala v sektorju nismo mogli analizirati modela multifaktorske produktivnosti. Pri analizi smo kot odvisno spremenljivko uporabili dodano vrednost gradbenega sektorja, kot neodvisno spremenljivko pa število opravljenih delovnih ur v sektorju. Vse podatke smo pridobili s spletne baze Eurostat, ki deluje pod okriljem Evropske komisije. Ocenili smo ekonometrični model za celotno obdobje (2000 – 2015) ter za dve podobdobji – pred in po nastopu krize. Ugotovili smo, da je njen vpliv nezanemarljiv, saj je padec produktivnosti dela velik – upadel je na približno 30% vrednosti pred krizo.

Keywords

gospodarske krize;produktivnost;gradbeništvo;ekonometrija;

Data

Language: Slovenian
Year of publishing:
Typology: 2.11 - Undergraduate Thesis
Organization: UM EPF - Faculty of Economics and Business
Publisher: [A. Krajcer]
UDC: 338.124.4
COBISS: 12942364 Link will open in a new window
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Other data

Secondary language: English
Secondary title: ǂThe ǂimpact of the global economic crisis on the productivity of the construction sector in Slovenia
Secondary abstract: The aim of the diploma project is to use econometric models to help quantify the impact of the 2008 economic crisis on the productivity of the Slovenian construction sector. The sector grew rapidly in the years leading up to the crisis, perhaps too rapidly, because the downfall was just as severe. In the first part we will present the theoretical aspects of the crisis and the construction sector as well as their connection. The second part aims to quantify the impact of the financial crisis on the construction sector, using simple regression models. We have decided to use labour productivity as recommended by OECD, because of the lack of quarterly capital data needed to design the more sophisticated multi-factor productivity model. Our dependent variable used was gross value added in the construction sector and our independent variable were hours worked in the sector. All of the data was taken from European Commision's Eurostat. We have specified the model for the entire period (2000 – 2015), as well as two extra models for the sub-periods before and after the crisis. We have come to the conclusion that the impact of the crisis was significant as the drop in labour productivity was very big – it fell to about 30% of the pre-crisis value.
Secondary keywords: construction;Slovenia;economic crisis;econometrics;
URN: URN:SI:UM:
Type (COBISS): Diploma project paper
Thesis comment: Univ. v Mariboru, Ekonomsko-poslovna fak.
Pages: II, 48 str., 10 str. pril.
ID: 10862816