Vpliv podnebnih sprememb na kmetijske kulture v Evropi

magistrsko delo

Aleš Zver (Author), Danijel Ivajnšič (Mentor), Igor Žiberna (Co-mentor)

Abstract

Magistrsko delo z naslovom Vpliv podnebnih sprememb na kmetijske kulture v Evropi smo izdelali z namenom, da ocenimo, kam peljejo podnebne spremembe na področju kmetijstva v Evropi. Ugotavljamo, da imajo podnebne spremembe tako negativne kot pozitivne posledice za kmetijstvo, hkrati pa sama kmetijska dejavnost lahko vpliva na spreminjanje podnebja. S tremi različnimi globalnimi podnebnimi modeli (CC, HE in MP), v sklopu katerih smo obravnavali tri različne scenarije (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 in RCP8.5), ter s pomočjo geografskega informacijskega sistema, smo izdelali karte, ki nakazujejo trend spreminjanja podnebnih pogojev za izbrane kmetijske kulture v 2. polovici 21. stoletja. Ugotovili smo, da bi se lahko povprečne letne temperature po najbolj pesimističnem scenariju (RCP8.5) na posameznih območjih v Evropi dvignile tudi za več kot 5 °C. Za analizo smo izbrali najbolj tradicionalne oz. specifične kmetijske kulture v Evropi, to so pšenica [Triticum aestivum L.], koruza [Zea Mays L.], krompir [Solanum tuberosum L.] in oljka [Olea europaea L.]. Na podlagi bioklimatskih lastnosti za posamezno kulturo smo izdelali karte, ki prikazujejo podnebno ustreznost za pridelavo izbrane kulture v 2. polovici 21. stoletja. Ugotovili smo, da se bo ustreznost za pridelavo izbranih kmetijskih kultur v prihodnosti ob obravnavanih podnebnih trendih v splošnem pomikala v višje geografske širine in nadmorske višine. Na podlagi rezultatov podnebne ustreznosti smo analizo nekoliko poglobili s pomočjo metode CVA (Change Vector Analysis) in tako ugotavljali, na katerih območjih v Evropi bo v prihodnosti imela temperatura zraka in na katerih spremenjena količina padavin večji pomen pri spreminjanju podnebne ustreznosti za pridelavo oz. gojenje izbranih kmetijskih kultur.

Keywords

magistrska dela;evropska kmetijska politika;globalni podnebni modeli;podnebne spremembe;podnebna ustreznost;kmetijske kulture;RCP;

Data

Language:	Slovenian
Year of publishing:	2019
Typology:	2.09 - Master's Thesis
Organization:	UM FF - Faculty of Arts
Publisher:	[A. Zver]
UDC:	551.583:633(4)(043.2)
COBISS:	24696328
Views:	1123
Downloads:	266
Average score:	0 (0 votes)
Metadata:

Other data

Secondary language:	English
Secondary title:	ǂThe ǂimpact of climate change on crop suitability in Europe
Secondary abstract:	The master's thesis with the title The Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Crops in Europe was made with the aim of assessing what impact are climate changes having on the agriculture in Europe. We establish that climate changes have negative as well as positive effects on agriculture, while at the same time agricultural activity itself can affect climate change. With three different global climate models (CC, HE and MP), in which three different scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are discussed, and with the help of the geographic information system, we have produced maps, which indicate a trend of changing climate conditions for selected agricultural crops in the second half of the 21st century. We established that in the most pessimistic scenario (RCP8.5) the average annual temperatures in individual areas in Europe could rise by more than 5 °C. For the analysis we selected the most traditional or specific agricultural crops in Europe: wheat [Triticum aestivum L.], corn [Zea Mays L.], potato [Solanum tuberosum L.] and olive [Olea europaea L.]. Based on bioclimatic characteristics of each culture, we made maps, which demonstrate climate suitability for the production of the selected crop in the second half of the 21st century. We established that the suitability of cultivating selected agricultural crops in the future will, in accordance with the discussed climate trends, generally move to higher latitudes and altitudes. On the basis of the results of climate suitability, the analysis was slightly deepened with the help of the CVA (Change Vector Analysis) method. Thereby we could determine in which European areas in the future will the air temperature and in which areas the altered amount of precipitation have greater relevance in changing climate suitability for the cultivation of selected agricultural crops.
Secondary keywords:	master theses;European agricultural policy;global climate models;climate changes;climate suitability;agricultural crops;RCP;
Type (COBISS):	Master's thesis/paper
Thesis comment:	Univ. v Mariboru, Filozofska fak., Oddelek za geografijo
Pages:	II f., 67 str.
ID:	11150029