Ocene tveganja in ocene ogroženosti v primerih nasilnih kaznivih dejanj

magistrsko delo

Maja Žnidaršič (Author), Igor Areh (Mentor)

Abstract

Ocene tveganja so postale nepogrešljiv pripomoček pri obravnavi kriznih situacij in so se iz managementa prenesla na upravljanje tveganj znotraj kriminalitete. Z raziskovanjem dejavnikov tveganja so strokovnjaki izdelali orodja, ki predvidevajo storitev kaznivega dejanja. Dejavniki tveganja so tisti znaki, ki imajo močen vpliv na izid, izvršitev nasilnega kaznivega dejanja. Ocena tveganja in ocena ogroženosti sta orodja s pomočjo katerih skušamo preprečiti kaznivo dejanje ali ponovno viktimizacijo žrtve. V magistrskem delu smo opredelili področje ter raziskali ali se ocene tveganja uporabljajo tako za storilce kot tudi žrtve kaznivih dejanj, ali zmanjšajo možnost pristranskega ocenjevanja strokovnjakov ter ali so se ocene tveganja v tujini izkazale kot učinkovite v primerih nasilnih kaznivih dejanj. Podrobneje smo naredili pregled učinkovitosti ocen ter njihove omejitve. Izpostavili smo orodja, ki so najpogosteje v uporabi v tujini. S pomočjo pregleda literature ter večjega števila meta-analiz smo ugotovili, da se ocene tveganja uporabljajo za storilce, ocene ogroženosti pa za žrtve kaznivih dejanj. Zaradi pomanjkanja raziskav nismo mogli potrditi niti povsem ovreči tezo ali ocene zmanjšajo možnost pristranskega ocenjevanja strokovnjakov, vendar pa so se ocene izkazale za učinkovite, z omejitvijo, da večina raziskav učinkovitost oziroma napovedno veljavnost orodij primerja z naključno verjetnostjo, ne primerjajo pa učinkovitost z dejanskim izidom, ali se je kaznivo dejanje dejansko zgodilo ali ne.

Keywords

magistrska dela;ocena tveganja;ocena ogroženosti;dejavniki tveganja;nasilna kazniva dejanja;učinkovitost;

Data

Language:	Slovenian
Year of publishing:	2018
Typology:	2.09 - Master's Thesis
Organization:	UM FVV - Faculty of Criminal Justice
Publisher:	[M. Avguštinčič]
UDC:	343.3/.7(043.2)
COBISS:	3657450
Views:	840
Downloads:	157
Average score:	0 (0 votes)
Metadata:

Other data

Secondary language:	English
Secondary title:	Risk assessment in violence crime cases
Secondary abstract:	Risk assessments have become an indispensable tool in addressing the crisis situations and have been transferred from management to the risk management inside criminality. By exploring the risk factors, the experts developed various tools that predict the commission of the offence. Risk factors are the signs that have a strong impact on the outcome, i.e. the execution of the crime. Risk and assessment are the tools that help prevent possible criminal offence or renewed victimisation of individuals. The area was defined in the thesis and research was made on whether the risk assessments are being used for both the perpetrators and the victims, whether they lessen the possibility of biased evaluation, and whether the risk assessment abroad proved to be effective in cases of violent crimes. Effectiveness of assessments and restrictions was examined in detail and tools that are used abroad have been presented. With the review of literature and a number of meta-analyses it was concluded that risk assessments are being used for perpetrators, while the threat assessments are being used for the victims. Due to a lack of research the hypothesis about risk assessments lessening the possibility of biased evaluation could be neither confirmed nor completely refuted. However, the assessments proved effective with a limitation that in most researches the effectiveness or predictive validity of the tools is being compared with random probability and not with the actual outcome, i.e. whether the crime has actually been carried out or not.
Secondary keywords:	risk assessments;threat assessments;risk factors;violent crimes;predictive validity;
URN:	URN:SI:UM:
Type (COBISS):	Master's thesis/paper
Thesis comment:	Univ. v Mariboru, Fak. za varnostne vede, Ljubljana
Pages:	VIII, 58 str.
ID:	11161912