delo diplomskega projekta
Uroš Zavernik (Author), Žan Oplotnik (Mentor)

Abstract

Diplomsko delo je sestavljeno iz dveh delov. Fokus prvega dela je teoretična opredelitev metode ocene stroškov in koristi, skupaj z definiranjem vseh potrebnih elementov, kazalnikov in parametrov. Na podlagi preučenih teoretičnih izhodišč smo preverjali problematiko vpliva izbire parametrov analize stroškov in koristi na rezultat analize stroškov in koristi. Predvidevali smo, da je upravičenost investicijskega projekta odvisna od subjektivne izbire predračunskih vrednosti parametrov, uporabljenih v okviru metode ocene upravičenosti. Ugotovitve so pokazale, da na izbor nekaterih parametrov ne moremo vplivati, saj so poenoteni in določeni za posamezne skupine projektov, vrednost preostalih pa je podana na podlagi mnenj in izkušenj izdelovalcev investicijske dokumentacije ter na podlagi referenc. Ker gre praviloma za ključne parametre analize stroškov in koristi, katerih vrednosti so subjektivno izbrane, smo sklep potrdili. Teoretične osnove analize stroškov in koristi predstavljene v prvem delu, so potrebne za prikaz izdelave ustrezne ocene stroškov, ki je predstavljen v drugem delu diplomskega dela. Prikaz izdelave analize stroškov in koristi temelji na študijskem primeru investicije X, ki smo si ga zadali na podlagi prebrane investicijske dokumentacije podobnih projektov. Na podlagi preučenih teoretičnih izhodišč smo ob manjših omejitvah, ki so posledica narave izbranega projekta prikazali izdelavo ustrezne analize stroškov in koristi investicijskega projekta. V sklopu prikaza smo predstavili podatke o projektu in prikazali vse pomembnejše elemente analize stroškov in koristi. Nadalje smo problematiko izbora parametrov povezali z obravnavanim primerom, kjer smo v sklopu prikaza občutljivostne analize preverjali robustnost investicije X na spremembe ključnih parametrov analize. Sklepali smo, da je obravnavan projekt ekonomsko upravičen zgolj v ozkih mejah vrednosti parametrov ocene stroškov in koristi. S pomočjo delne analize občutljivosti smo najprej izbrane parametre vsakega posebej maksimirali do skrajne vrednosti ter tako ugotovili relativno spremembo parametrov do meje upravičenosti projekta. Nato smo izvedli scenarijsko analizo kjer smo upravičenost projekta izpostavili kumulativi sprememb parametrov. Ob 15 odstotni spremembi vrednosti parametrov je projekt izkazoval pozitivno vrednost ekonomske NPV kar je preseglo naša pričakovanja. Sklep smo ovrgli, saj je obravnavan projekt bolj robusten kot smo predvidevali.

Keywords

projekti;investicije;analiza stroškov;analiza koristi;infrastruktura;ceste;

Data

Language: Slovenian
Year of publishing:
Typology: 2.11 - Undergraduate Thesis
Organization: UM EPF - Faculty of Economics and Business
Publisher: [U. Zavernik]
UDC: 658.152:657.47
COBISS: 75323395 Link will open in a new window
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Downloads: 42
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Other data

Secondary language: English
Secondary title: Eligibility evaluation of investment project in public road infrastructure with cost-benefit analysis
Secondary abstract: Diploma thesis consists of two parts. The focus of the first part is the theoretical definition of the cost-benefit evaluation method, together with the definition of all necessary elements, indicators and parameters. Based on the studied theoretical starting points, we examined the impact of parameters selection of cost-benefit analysis on the result of analysis. We assumed, that the eligibility of the investment project depends on the subjectively estimated values of the selected parameters, used within the eligibility assessment method. The findings showed, that the selection of some parameters cannot be influenced, as they are unified and determined for individual groups of projects, while the value of the rest is given on the basis of references, opinions and experience of writers, who make investment documentation. As these are usually the key parameters of the cost-benefit analysis, the values of which are subjectively selected, we confirmed our assumption and concluded, that the project eligibility depends on chosen values of parameters. The theory of cost-benefit analysis presented in the first part is needed to demonstrate the preparation of an appropriate cost-benefit analysis, which is presented in the second part of the thesis. The presentation of the cost-benefit analysis is based on the case study of investment X, which we set on the basis of the read investment documentation of similar projects. Based on theoretical starting points, with minor limitations due to the nature of the selected project, we have shown the preparation of an appropriate cost-benefit analysis of the investment project. As part of the demonstration, we presented basic data of the project and all the important elements of the cost-benefit analysis. Furthermore, we related the issue of parameter selection to the case, where we checked the robustness of the investment X for changes in key analysis parameters, as part of the sensitivity analysis presentation. We assumed, that the considered project is economically justified only within the narrow limits of the value of the parameters of cost-benefit analysis. With a partial sensitivity analysis, we first maximized each selected parameter to the extreme value, and thus determined the relative change of parameters to the limit of project eligibility. We then performed a scenario analysis, where we exposed the eligibility of the project to the cumulative parameter changes. With a 15% value change of all parameters, the project showed a positive economic NPV, which exceeded our expectations. We refute the assumption, as the project in question is more robust than we anticipated.
Secondary keywords: investment;project;cost-benefit analysis;eligibility;sensitivity;
Type (COBISS): Diploma project paper
Thesis comment: Univ. v Mariboru, Ekonomsko-poslovna fak.
Pages: 38 str.
ID: 12745395