magistrsko delo
Kristian Lipovac (Author), Peter Kozel (Mentor), Danijel Ivajnšič (Co-mentor)

Abstract

Poznavanje ekologije vrst suhih južin še vedno temelji večinoma na opisnih podatkih značilnosti najdišč. Skalni dolgin (Leiobunum rupestre) je tipična gozdna vrsta suhih južin in živi v primerno vlažnih habitatih. V raziskavi smo analizirali prostorsko ekološko nišo skalnega dolgina v Sloveniji na osnovi podatkov o 736 skalnih dolginih na 304 lokacijah, na nadmorskih višinah med 150 in 1421 m. Cilj raziskave je ugotoviti, kje so v Sloveniji ustrezni potencialni habitati in kateri okoljski dejavniki vplivajo na razširjenost skalnega dolgina, ter kako. Ugotoviti smo želeli še, kako in kje se bo ustreznost potencialnih habitatov do leta 2070 spremenila glede na podnebna scenarija RCP 4.5 in RCP 8.5 in na tej osnovi opredeliti potencialno razširjenost skalnega dolgina v Sloveniji v prihodnje. Razširjenost vrste smo proučili z ekološkim modeliranjem, pri čemer smo ugotavljali potencialno razširjenost vrste na podlagi modeliranja ustreznih habitatov. V raziskavi smo analizirali podatke z najdišč skalnega dolgina v povezavi z okoljskimi dejavniki v vsej Sloveniji. Ekološko nišo in razširjenost vrste smo proučevali z modelom za modeliranje maksimalne nedoločenosti/entropije(MaxEnt). Ugotovili smo, da je skalni dolgin submontanska do montanska vrsta, saj so najustreznejši potencialni habitati za življenje v hribovju, na nadmorskih višinah med 500 in 1000 m. Vrsta preferira manj vetrovne, geomorfološko najnižje predele, torej doline, kotanje ipd. v različnih tipih gozdov z bujno vegetacijo in s severno ekspozicijo. V visokogorju in Primorju ni ustreznih habitatov za skalnega dolgina. Na podlagi podnebnega scenarija RCP 4.5 se bosta ustreznost potencialnih habitatov in območje potencialne razširjenosti skalnega dolgina do leta 2070 zmanjšali. Leta 2070 bo več ustreznih potencialnih habitatov na višjih nadmorskih višinah, zato pričakujemo v Sloveniji pomik prisotnosti vrste na višje nadmorske višine. Na podlagi scenarija RCP 8.5 se bosta ustreznost potencialnih habitatov in območje potencialne razširjenosti do leta 2070 še dodatno zmanjšali. Po našem vedenju je to prva taka raziskava na suhih južinah v Evropi. Kljub relativno majhni, okrog 60-odstotni zanesljivosti rezultatov izbranega modela, se je naš pristop izkazal za zelo primeren način proučevanja prostorskih ekoloških niš suhih južin. Z izpopolnjevanjem modela se bo njegova verodostojnost v prihodnje nedvomno izboljšala, s tem pa si lahko obetamo vse bolj objektivno vrednotenje obravnavanih prostorskih niš in boljšo uporabnost izsledkov pri napovedovanju sprememb razširjenosti posameznih vrst v spreminjajočem se okolju.

Keywords

magistrska dela;modeliranje ekološke niše;pajkovci;podnebne spremembe;potencialna razširjenost;

Data

Language: Slovenian
Year of publishing:
Typology: 2.09 - Master's Thesis
Organization: UM FNM - Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics
Publisher: [K. Lipovac]
UDC: 595.4(497.4)(043.2)
COBISS: 69495555 Link will open in a new window
Views: 395
Downloads: 33
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Other data

Secondary language: English
Secondary title: Ecology of Leiobunum rupestre (Herbst, 1799) (Arachnida: Opiliones: Sclerosomatidae), in Slovenia
Secondary abstract: The general knowledge on the ecology of harvestmen is still largely based on descriptive data of habitat characteristics. The harvestmen Leiobunum rupestre is a typical forest species that inhabits moderately humid habitats. In our research, we analysed the spatial niche of the species in Slovenia using the data from 736 individuals in 304 localities at altitudes of 150%1421 m. Our aims were to find out where in Slovenia are potential habitats fulfilling the requirements of L. rupestre and which environmental factors influence the distribution of the species and how. We also generated projections of potentially suitable habitats according to the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios in 2070 to predict variation in the potential distribution of L. rupestre in the country in the future. We assessed the potential distribution by means of ecological modelling of suitable habitats. In this study we analysed environmental data from localities in relation to the environmental data in the whole Slovenia. To investigate the ecological niche and species distribution, we applied the Maximal Entropy modelling (MaxEnt). We found out that L. rupestre is a submontane to montane species, since most of the potentially suitable habitats are in low-mountain landscape in the altitudes of 500%1000 m. The species prefers areas with weak airflow, geomorphologically depressed microhabitats, such as valleys, dolines etc., in various forest types with dense vegetation cover and northern exposition. Suitable habitats are lacking in the highlands and in the regions of Primorska and Prekmurje. According to the RCP 4.5 scenario, suitability of the potential habitats and distribution of L. rupestre will decrease by 2070. In that time, there will be more suitable potential habitats at higher altitudes, therefore, we expect a distributional shift of the species to higher localities. According to the RCP 8.5 scenario, the suitability of the potential habitats and the distribution of L. rupestre will decrease even more by 2070. To our knowledge, this is the pilot model study to address the spatial niches in harvestmen in Europe. Despite the relatively limited, about 60% accuracy of the outcomes, we consider the modelling used to be a credible way to study the spatial niches in harvestmen. The model used deserves further refinement to improve the accuracy. However, we believe that in this way, the credibility of the model assessing spatial niches will gradually increase in the future, which in turn will improve the prediction of changes in the distribution of species in a changing environment.
Secondary keywords: master theses;arachnids;ecological niche modelling;global climate change;potential species distribution;Pajki;Habitat (ekologija);Podnebne spremembe;Univerzitetna in visokošolska dela;
Type (COBISS): Master's thesis/paper
Thesis comment: Univ. v Mariboru, Fak. za naravoslovje in matematiko, Oddelek za biologijo
Pages: XII, 73 f.
ID: 13021631