magistrsko delo
Tomaž Markovič (Author), Danijel Ivajnšič (Mentor), Igor Žiberna (Co-mentor)

Abstract

Podnebje na Zemlji se spreminja že vse od njenega nastanka in nikoli ni bilo stalnica. Podnebne spremembe v precejšnji meri vplivajo na naravne in antropogene sisteme. Med drugim se posledice spreminjanja podnebja čutijo pri številnih gospodarskih dejavnostih, ki so predvsem odvisne od naravnega okolja. Glede na številne študije znanstvenikov iz celotne Evrope podnebne spremembe vedno bol negativno vplivajo na večino smučarskih središč Evrope. Glede na številne napovedi in analize naj bi konec stoletja imela pogoje za obratovanje le še smučarska središča v visokogorju. Osrednji namen magistrskega dela je objektivno oceniti vpliv podnebnih sprememb na ustreznost smučarskih središč v prihodnih desetletjih in analizirati, na katerih območjih v Evropi bodo pogoji za smučanje v prihodnosti še ustrezni ter kakšen vpliv bo imela podnebna ustreznost v prihodnosti na število nočitev turistov v izbranih evropskih državah in slovenskih občinah. Na podlagi dveh različnih podnebnih globalnih modelov, podnebnega scenarija RCP8.5, prostorskih podatkov o legi smučišč in o obisku turistov v smučarski sezoni, smo prišli do dveh različnih napovedi. Podnebni globalni model HadGEM-ES potrjuje številne napovedi znanstvenikov, da bodo konec stoletja lahko obratovala le še visokogorska smučarska središča po celotni Evropi. Z dosedanjimi napovedmi modela HadGEM-ES in evropskih znanstvenikov se ne ujemajo rezultati podnebnega globalnega modela CNMR-CM5, ki napoveduje, da bo podnebna ustreznost za vsa evropska smučarska središča podobna kot je danes. Na podlagi povprečnih podatkov o podnebni ustreznosti obeh obravnavanih podnebnih globalnih modelov in povprečju števila nočitev turistov smo ugotovili, da se bo konec 21. stoletja turistični obisk zimskih smučarskih središč močno zmanjšal v vseh obravnavanih evropskih državah. Rezultati magistrskega dela imajo tako aplikativno vrednost predvsem za občine, regije oz. države, za katere je zimski turizem velikega pomena.

Keywords

magistrska dela;podnebne spremembe;podnebna ustreznost;evropska smučarska središča;zimski turizem;

Data

Language: Slovenian
Year of publishing:
Typology: 2.09 - Master's Thesis
Organization: UM FF - Faculty of Arts
Publisher: [T. Markovič]
UDC: 551.583:[338.48:796.9](4)(043.2)
COBISS: 70169859 Link will open in a new window
Views: 322
Downloads: 40
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Other data

Secondary language: English
Secondary title: Climate suitability of Europe's ski resorts
Secondary abstract: The Earth's climate has been changing since its creation, and it has never been a constant thing. Climate change has significant impacts on both natural and anthropogenic systems. Among other things, the effects of climate change are being felt in a wide range of economic activities that rely heavily on the natural environment. Climate change is also having an increasingly negative impact on most of Europe's ski resorts, according to numerous studies by scientists from across Europe. According to numerous forecasts and analyses, by the end of the century, only ski resorts in the high-mountain regions will have the conditions to operate. The main aim of the Master's thesis is to objectively assess the impact of climate change on the suitability of ski resorts in the coming decades and to analyse which areas in Europe will still have suitable conditions for skiing in the future and what impact climate suitability will have on the number of overnight stays of tourists in selected European countries and Slovenian municipalities in the future. Based on two different global climate models, the RCP8.5 climate scenario, spatial data on the location of ski resorts and tourist arrivals during the ski season, we came to two different projections. The HadGEM-ES global climate model confirms many scientists' predictions that by the end of the century, only ski resorts in high-mountain regions will remain in operation across Europe. However, the predictions made so far by the HadGEM-ES model and European scientists do not match the results of the global climate model CNMR-CM5, which predicts that the climate suitability for all European ski resorts will be similar to what it is today. Based on the average climate suitability data of the two global climate models considered and the average number of overnight stays of tourists, we conclude that by the end of the 21st century, tourist arrivals at winter ski resorts will decrease significantly in all European countries considered. The results of the Master's thesis have an applied value, especially for municipalities, regions or countries for which winter tourism is of great importance.
Secondary keywords: master theses;climate change;climate suitability;European skiresorts;winter tourism;Podnebje;Podnebne spremembe;Turistično rekreacijska središča;Šport in turizem;Evropa;Univerzitetna in visokošolska dela;
Type (COBISS): Master's thesis/paper
Thesis comment: Univ. v Mariboru, Filozofska fak., Oddelek za geografijo
Pages: IX f., 69 str.
ID: 13031231