magistrsko delo
Aleš Budna (Author), Goran Vižintin (Mentor)

Abstract

V magistrskem delu so obravnavane skupne značilnosti in možne korelacije med porabo premoga, emisijami CO2, emisijsko produktivnostjo in gospodarsko rastjo v Sloveniji. S Pearsonovim koeficientom korelacije se je analizirala povezanost med navedenimi spremenljivkami ter se s pomočjo linearne regresije in metode najmanjših kvadratov, izdelalo napovedne matematične modele, s katerimi se lahko ocenijo trendi porabe premoga in emisij CO2 v prihodnosti. Povezanost med porabo premoga, emisijami in emisijsko produktivnostjo je znatna, medtem ko je korelacija med porabo premoga in gospodarsko rastjo minimalna, zato poraba premoga in s tem emisije nimajo pomembnega vpliva na gospodarsko rast. Matematični modeli kažejo dobro prileganje, kar je pogoj za zanesljivost napovedi. V nadaljevanju so obdelani tudi možni scenariji prehoda na ogljično nevtralnost in s tem povezano problematiko prihodnje oskrbe z električno energijo kot posledico prenehanja pridobivanja in uporabe premoga.

Keywords

premog;emisije;povezanost;napovedovanje;

Data

Language: Slovenian
Year of publishing:
Typology: 2.09 - Master's Thesis
Organization: UL NTF - Faculty of Natural Sciences and Engineering
Publisher: [A. Budna]
UDC: 622
COBISS: 71521539 Link will open in a new window
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Downloads: 45
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Other data

Secondary language: English
Secondary title: analysis of coal consumption, CO [sub] 2 emissions and economic growth in Slovenia
Secondary abstract: The master's thesis discusses the common characteristics and possible correlations between coal consumption, CO2 emissions, emission productivity and economic growth in Slovenia. Using the Pearson correlation coefficient, the correlation between these variables was analysed and, using linear regression and the least squares method, predictive mathematical models were developed that can be used to estimate trends in coal consumption and CO2 emissions in the future. The link between coal consumption, emissions and emission productivity is significant, while the correlation between coal consumption and economic growth is minimal. Therefore, coal consumption and with them emissions do not have a significant impact on economic growth. Mathematical models show a good fit, which is a condition for the reliability of the prediction. Possible scenarios of the transition to carbon neutrality and the related problems of future electricity supply as a consequence of the cessation of coal mining and use are also discussed below.
Secondary keywords: coal;emissions;correlation;forecasting;
Type (COBISS): Master's thesis/paper
Study programme: 0
Embargo end date (OpenAIRE): 1970-01-01
Thesis comment: Univ. v Ljubljani, Naravoslovnotehniška fak., Oddelek za geotehnologijo, rudarstvo in okolje
Pages: XIII, 68 str.
ID: 13059366