diplomsko delo
Santina Jurić (Author), Darja Boršič (Mentor), Marko Senekovič (Co-mentor)

Abstract

V diplomskem delu obravnavamo ekonometrično analizo izvozne funkcije v Združenem kraljestvu. Za smiselno povezovanje dobljenih rezultatov analize pričnemo s pregledom ekonomske teorije in empirične literature s področja izvoza. Izvozno funkcijo definiramo s pomočjo treh pojasnjevalnih spremenljivk, to so bruto domači proizvod trgovinskih partneric, bruto domači proizvod Združenega kraljestva in realni efektivni devizni tečaj, na podlagi kvartalnih podatkov v obdobju med leti 2002 in 2020. Kot zanimivost lahko izpostavimo pomen gospodarskih prelomov, kot je Velika recesija in pojav pandemije Covid-19, na gibanje izvoza in posledično ustreznost specifiranega modela izvozne funkcije. Ugotovljen prelom v letih 2009-2010 od nas zahteva zapis ločenih izvoznih funkcijskih modelov in skrajšanje opazovanega obdobja. V nadaljevanju dela smo izbrani izvozni funkciji podrobneje analizirali s pomočjo programa EViews11Univ, ugotavljali primernost specifikacij in izpolnjenost predpostavk metode najmanjših kvadratov, tako da smo z različnimi testi preverjali prisotnost normalne porazdelitve slučajne spremenljivke, multikolinearnosti, heteroskedastičnosti in avtokorelacije. V sklepu smo pridobljene rezultate argumentirali in pojasnili pomen v model vključenih spremenljivk na gibanje izvoza v Združenem kraljestvu.

Keywords

ekonometrična analiza;izvozna funkcija;efektivni devizni tečaji;Združeno kraljestvo;

Data

Language: Slovenian
Year of publishing:
Typology: 2.11 - Undergraduate Thesis
Organization: UM EPF - Faculty of Economics and Business
Publisher: S. Jurić
UDC: 330.43:339.564(100)
COBISS: 83459843 Link will open in a new window
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Downloads: 22
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Other data

Secondary language: English
Secondary title: ǂAn ǂeconometric analysis of export function in the United Kingdom
Secondary abstract: In this paper, we focus on an econometric analysis of the export function in the United Kingdom. To be able to sensibly interpret results acquired from the analysis, we first overview the economic theory and empirical literature from the field of export. The export function is defined by three explanatory variables: gross domestic product of trading partners, gross domestic product of the United Kingdom and the real effective exchange rate, based on quarterly data in the period between 2002 and 2020. We stress the importance of economic upheavals, such as the Great Recession and the COVID pandemic, for export behaviour and, consequently, suitability of the specified export function model. Due to the determined upheaval in the years 2009–2010, the use of separate export function models and a shorter observation period are required. We continue our paper by analysing in detail the selected export functions with the EViews11Univ program. We also determine the suitability of specifications and compliance with conditions of the method of least squares by conducting different tests to study normal distribution of a random variable, multicollinearity, heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation. In the conclusion, we provide arguments for the acquired results and explain the importance of variables, included in the model, for export behaviour in the United Kingdom.
Secondary keywords: export function;real effective exchange rate;United Kingdom;
Type (COBISS): Bachelor thesis/paper
Thesis comment: Univ. v Mariboru, Ekonomsko-poslovna fak.
Pages: III, 47 f., 14 f. pril.
ID: 13222148