Analiza vpliva zadolževanja na gospodarsko rast držav Evropske unije

magistrsko delo

Abstract

V razvitih gospodarstvih je bilo v času njihovega razvoja mogoče zaznati številna daljša obdobja zadolževanja in razdolževanja, saj se je dolg integriral na različnih agregatnih ravneh gospodarstva. Instrument dolga lahko tako zasebnim kot tudi javnim ekonomskim subjektom omogoča lajšanje njihove osnovne aktivnosti in zasledovanje ciljev, kar predstavlja pozitiven vidik dolga. Kljub temu si ob prekomernem in pospešenem zadolževanju lahko upravičeno zastavimo vprašanje, ali bo imela takšna dinamika povečevanja dolga negativen vpliv na poslovanje podjetij, vzdržnost javnih financ in aktivnosti gospodinjstev ter ali bo na agregatni ravni zniževala stopnja gospodarske rasti. Omenjeno vprašanje postane aktualnejše v času gospodarskega krčenja, kot sta na primer velika recesija in koronavirusna pandemija, in večje nevarnosti bankrotov, zato je pozornost smiselno posvetiti ravno problematiki zadolževanja. Teorije gospodarske rasti sicer opredelijo različne temeljne dejavnike rasti, vendar med njimi ni mogoče zaslediti neposredne vloge zadolževanja. Ekonomska teorija pojasnjuje temeljno povezavo med prekomernim dolgom in gospodarsko rastjo z neustrezno alokacijo finančnih sredstev, kar negativno vpliva na akumulacijo kapitala, slednja pa ima pomembno vlogo pri gospodarskem razvoju države. Dosedanje raziskave vpliva zadolževanja na gospodarsko rast potrjujejo možnost negativne povezave med spremenljivkama, kar poudarja pomembno vlogo dolga med dejavniki gospodarske rasti. Pri določitvi morebitnega praga vpliva zadolževanja na gospodarsko rast ni splošnega konsenza, saj so ugotovitve številnih empiričnih študij heterogene. V empiričnem sklopu magistrskega dela smo s pomočjo ekonometričnega modela na vzorcu izbranih držav Evropske unije med leti 1996 in 2016 analizirali vpliv zadolževanja na srednjeročno gospodarsko rast. Ugotovili smo, da obstaja med vladnim dolgom in bodočo stopnjo gospodarske rasti konkavna oblika povezave z maksimumom pri 104,8 % BDP, nasprotno pa med odlogom podjetniškega dolga in bodočo stopnjo gospodarske rasti obstaja konveksna oblika povezave z minimumom pri 138,3 % BDP. Prav tako smo ugotovili, da konveksna oblika povezave z minimumom pri 145,1 % BDP obstaja tudi med odlogom dolga gospodinjstev in srednjeročno gospodarsko rastjo. Izračunani pragovi predstavljajo pomembno sporočilo vsem nosilcem ekonomske politike v Evropski uniji, saj ima zadolževanje vlad, gospodinjstev in podjetij pomembno vlogo pri bodoči gospodarski rasti držav.

Keywords

ekonomska politika;gospodarska rast;teorija rasti;zadolženost;zadolževanje;Evropska unija;

Data

Language:	Slovenian
Year of publishing:	2022
Typology:	2.09 - Master's Thesis
Organization:	UM EPF - Faculty of Economics and Business
Publisher:	N. Fir
UDC:	330.35
COBISS:	104050947
Views:	403
Downloads:	104
Average score:	0 (0 votes)
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Other data

Secondary language:	English
Secondary title:	Analysis of the impact of indebtedness on economic growth of European Union countries
Secondary abstract:	In developed economies, many longer periods of increasing indebtedness and deleveraging could have been observed during their development, as debt was being integrated at different aggregate levels of economy. The debt instrument may enable both private and public economic operators to facilitate their core business and pursue their objectives, which is a positive aspect of debt. Despite excessive and accelerated indebtedness, we may substantially ask ourselves whether such a dynamic increase in debt will have a negative impact on business performance, the sustainability of public finances and household activities, and whether it will reduce economic growth at the aggregate level. In times of economic contraction, such as the Great Recession and the coronavirus pandemic, and the greater risk of bankruptcy, the discussed issue becomes even of a greater importance; that is why it makes sense to pay attention to the problems of indebtedness. Although defining various fundamental factors of growth, a direct role of indebtedness cannot be traced among theories of economic growth. The economic theory explains the fundamental connection between excessive debt and economic growth with an inadequate allocation of financial resources through negative effects on the accumulation of capital, which has an important role in the country’s economic development. Empirical evidence of the analysis of the impact of indebtedness on economic growth confirms the possibility of a negative correlation between the variables, which highlights the important role of debt among the factors of the economic growth. There is no general consensus in determining the potential threshold for the impact of indebtedness on economic growth, as the findings of many empirical studies are heterogeneous. In the empirical part of the master's thesis, the impact of indebtedness on medium-term economic growth between 1996 and 2016 was analysed by using an econometric model on a sample of selected European Union countries. The results have confirmed a concave form of connection between general government debt and future economic growth with a maximum at 104.8% of GDP, while there is a convex form of connection with a minimum at 138.3% of GDP between lagged corporate debt and future growth rate. Finally, the results have also confirmed the existence of a convex form of connection with a minimum at 145.1% of GDP between lagged household debt and medium-term economic growth. The calculated thresholds send an important message to all economic policy makers in the European Union, as government, household and corporate indebtedness plays an important role in the countries’ future economic growth.
Secondary keywords:	growth theory;economic policy;indebtedness;European Union;
Type (COBISS):	Master's thesis/paper
Thesis comment:	Univ. v Mariboru, Ekonomsko-poslovna fak.
Pages:	III, 106 str.
ID:	14483818