Impact of climate change on landslides in Slovenia in the mid-21st century

Mateja Jemec Auflič (Author), Gašper Bokal (Author), Špela Kumelj (Author), Anže Medved (Author), Mojca Dolinar (Author), Jernej Jež (Author)

Abstract

Slovenia is affected by extreme and intense rainfall that triggers numerous landslides every year, resulting in significant human impact and damage to infrastructure. Previous studies on landslides have shown how rainfall patterns can influence landslide occurrence, while in this paper, we present one of the first study in Slovenia to examine the impact of climate change on landslides in the mid-21st century. To do this, we used the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 climate scenario and future climatology simulated by six climate models that differed from each other as much as possible while representing measured values of past climate variables as closely as possible. Based on baseline period (1981-2010) we showed the number of days with exceedance of rainfall thresholds and the area where landslides may occur more frequently in the projection period (2041-2070). We found that extreme rainfall events are likely to occur more frequent in the future, which may lead to a higher frequency of landslides in some areas.

Keywords

podnebne spremembe;zemeljski plazovi;geološko pogojene nevarnosti;modeliranje;napovedovanje;

Data

Language:	English
Year of publishing:	2021
Typology:	1.01 - Original Scientific Article
Organization:	GeoZS - Geological Survey of Slovenia
Publisher:	Geološki zavod Slovenije
UDC:	504.4
COBISS:	92456195
ISSN:	0016-7789
Views:	247
Downloads:	95
Average score:	0 (0 votes)
Metadata:

Other data

Secondary language:	Slovenian
Secondary title:	Vpliv podnebnih sprememb na pojavljanje zemeljskih plazov v sredini 21. stoletja v Sloveniji
Secondary abstract:	Vsako leto Slovenijo prizadenejo ekstremne in močne padavine, ki sprožijo številne zemeljske plazove, kar povzroči znaten vpliv na človeka in škodo na infrastrukturi. Prejšnje študije plazov so pokazale, kako padavine vplivajo na pojav plazov, medtem ko v tem prispevku predstavljamo eno izmed prvih študij v Sloveniji, ki proučuje vpliv podnebnih sprememb na zemeljske plazove sredi 21. stoletja. V ta namen smo uporabili scenarij značilnih potekov vsebnosti toplogrednih plinov (RCP4.5) in uporabili simulacije šestih podnebnih modelov, ki so se med seboj čimbolj razlikovali, hkrati pa kar najbolj enako predstavljali izmerjene vrednosti podnebnih spremenljivk v obdobju meritev. Na podlagi referenčnega obdobja (1981-2010) prikazujemo število dni, ko padavine presežejo sprožilne količine padavin in območja, kjer se lahko plazovi v projekcijskem obdobju (2041-2070) pogosteje pojavljajo. Rezultati kažejo, da se bodo ekstremni padavinski dogodki v prihodnosti zelo verjetno pojavljali pogosteje kot danes, kar lahko na nekaterih območjih povzroči pogostejše pojavljanje zemeljskih plazov.
Secondary keywords:	podnebne spremembe;zemeljski plazovi;modeli;nevarnost;napoved;
Type (COBISS):	Not categorized
Pages:	str. 159-171
Volume:	ǂVol. ǂ64
Issue:	ǂno .ǂ2
Chronology:	2021
DOI:	10.5474/geologija.2021.009
ID:	14712377