magistrsko delo
Abstract
Evrazijski šakal (Canis aureus) je ena izmed vrst, ki se v Evropi intenzivno širi. V Sloveniji se redno pojavlja od leta 1980 dalje, najmanj od leta 2009 se tudi razmnožuje. Od takrat se je številčnost osebkov povečala na najmanj 750 – 1000 v letu 2019, z arealom po celotni Sloveniji. Za boljše razumevanje ekologije vrste smo na podlagi podatkov pridobljenih v nacionalnem monitoringu šakala med leti 2016 – 2019 izdelali dinamičen hierarhičen model pojavnosti s pomočjo paketa Unmarked v programu R. Z modelom smo kvantificirali vpliv okoljskih spremenljivk, ki smo jih identificirali na podlagi literature. Z variiranjem spremenljivk smo izdelali set kandidatnih modelov, ki smo jih med seboj primerjali z informacijskim kriterijem AICc. Za model, ki je najbolje opisal podatke, je veljalo, da je: verjetnost zaznave (d) odvisna od št. dni s snežno odejo med septembrom in marcem, začetna pojavnost (psi1) od oddaljenosti od najbližjega naselja in povprečnega indeksa fragmentiranosti gozda, verjetnost kolonizacije (gama) od povprečne vrednosti indeksa fragmentiranosti gozda in letnega št. dni s snežno odejo in verjetnost lokalnega izumrtja (epsilon) od povprečne nadmorske višine in oddaljenosti od najbližjega naselja. Rezultati najboljšega modela kažejo, da krajšanje časa trajanja snežne odeje vpliva na povečanje razširjenosti šakala. Izračunane vrednosti parametrov smo ekstrapolirali in prikazali na mrežo kvadratov 3 x 3 km po celotni Sloveniji. Izdelali smo tudi napoved sprememb vrednosti parametrov v letu 2050 glede na scenarija RCP 4.5 in RCP 8.5 za Slovenijo. Z modelom nismo uspeli dokazati znatnega povečanja razširjenosti v prihodnje zaradi podnebnih sprememb. Iz rezultatov modela sklepamo, da obstaja potencialno habitatno izključevanje z volkom.
Keywords
Canis aureus;evrazijski šakal;zoologija;hierarhični modeli pojavnosti;podnebne spremembe;ekologija;Slovenija;magistrska dela;
Data
Language: |
Slovenian |
Year of publishing: |
2022 |
Typology: |
2.09 - Master's Thesis |
Organization: |
UL BF - Biotechnical Faculty |
Publisher: |
[R. Kraševec] |
UDC: |
591 |
COBISS: |
115662083
|
Views: |
40 |
Downloads: |
16 |
Average score: |
0 (0 votes) |
Metadata: |
|
Other data
Secondary language: |
English |
Secondary title: |
Occurrence of Eurasian jackal in Slovenia |
Secondary abstract: |
The Eurasian jackal (Canis aureus) is one of the species that experienced rapid expansion in Europe in modern times. It has been a regular annual visitor in Slovenia since the 1980s, with the first territorial packs formed in 2009. Since then, the population has increased to 750 – 1000 in 2019 and has spread throughout Slovenia. To learn more about the species ecology, we created a dynamic hierarchical occupancy model that quantified relationships with environmental variables we knew from the literature. The model was fed with data collected by hunters as part of the National Jackal Monitoring Programme between 2016 and 2019. We used the Unmarked package in Programme R. We selected the best model by comparing environmental variables in the candidate set of models using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AICc). We selected the best model where detection probability (d) depended on the number of days with snow cover between September and March, initial occupancy (psi1) depended on the distance to the nearest settlement and the average index of forest fragmentation, colonisation probability (gamma) depended on the average index of forest fragmentation and annual days with snow cover, and extinction probability (epsilon) depended on the average elevation and distance to the nearest settlement. The results of the highest scoring models showed a positive correlation of occurrence with shorter duration of snow cover. We extrapolated the values of the parameters to a 3 x 3 km grid covering Slovenia. We also made a prediction of the change of the parameter values for the year 2050, according to the climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. We couldn’t prove any significant expansion of areal under the climate change scenarios. From the model results, we conclude that potential habitat exclusion by wolves exists. |
Secondary keywords: |
Eurasian jackal;zoology;hierarchical occupancy models;climate change;wildlife ecology;Slovenia;master thesis;Šakal;Zoologija;Univerzitetna in visokošolska dela; |
Type (COBISS): |
Master's thesis/paper |
Study programme: |
0 |
Embargo end date (OpenAIRE): |
1970-01-01 |
Thesis comment: |
Univ. v Ljubljani, Biotehniška fak., Oddelek za biologijo |
Pages: |
X, 89 str., [1] str. pril. |
ID: |
15907816 |