Keynesov koncept negotovosti in njegova relevantnost za tranzicijske ekonomije

Tjaša Redek (Author), Andrej Sušjan (Author)

Abstract

V članku je predstavljen koncept negotovosti, ki je v Keynesovi in postkeynesianski teoriji pomemben dejavnik makroekonomske dinamike, medtem ko novokeynesianska teorija tega koncepta ne upošteva. Avtorja poudarjata, da je v tranzicijskem ekonomskem okolju upoštevanje koncepta negotovosti še posebej relevantno, saj dodatna negotovost izhaja iz procesov institucionalne tranformacije, ostankov socialističnih praks in politične nestabilnosti. Za potrebe empirične analize je v članku zasnovan indeks negotovosti, ki je sestavljen iz elementov indeksov svobode organizacij Heritage Foundation in Freedom House. Panelna analiza podatkov za obdobje 1995-2002 potrjuje značilen vpliv negotovosti na gospodarsko rast tranzicijskih držav.

Keywords

negotovost;tranzicija;ekonomska rast;institucije;tuje investicije;investicije;neposredne tuje investicije;

Data

Language:	Slovenian
Year of publishing:	2006
Typology:	1.08 - Published Scientific Conference Contribution
Organization:	UM EPF - Faculty of Economics and Business
Publisher:	Društvo ekonomistov Maribor
UDC:	330.834
COBISS:	8914716
ISSN:	0547-3101
Views:	489
Downloads:	41
Average score:	0 (0 votes)
Metadata:

Other data

Secondary language:	English
Secondary title:	Keynes' concept of uncertainty and its relevance for transition economies
Secondary abstract:	The paper presents the central role of uncertainty in Keynes' macroeconomic theory. While in Post-Keynesian economics Keynes' views on uncertainty have been further elaborated, in New Keynesian economics this issue has been constantly ignored. The authors emphasize the particular relevance of uncertainty for the analysis of the transitional economic environment, where additional uncertainty stems from sources such as institutional transformation, behavioural legacies of the socialist past, and political instabilities. For the purpose of empirical analysis, an index of uncertainty is constructed based on the elements of the Heritage Foundation and Freedom House indices. Panel data analysis, carried out for the period 1995-2002, shows a significant impact of uncertainty on the growth rates of transition economies.
URN:	URN:NBN:SI
Type (COBISS):	Not categorized
Pages:	Str. 37-46
Volume:	52
ID:	1741370