Dinamika in analiza inflacije ter odziv denarne politike v evroobmočju

diplomsko delo

Matej Dogša (Author), Silvo Dajčman (Mentor)

Abstract

V diplomskem delu smo pregledali obstoječo literaturo o inflaciji, njenih vplivih, vzrokih, načinih merjenja in vplivu ekonomske politike na njo. Pojasnili smo pojme CPI indeks, BDP deflator, HICP indeks, indeks proizvodnih cen, stroškovno pogojena inflacija, inflacija povpraševanja in stabilnost cen. Ločeno smo predstavili denarno in fiskalno politiko. Pri denarni politiki smo pregledali njeno definicijo, naloge, strategijo, instrumente ter uporabna teoretična modela Taylorjevo pravilo in kvantitativno teorijo denarja. Pri fiskalni politiki smo pregledali njeno definicijo, instrumente, raziskave glede fiskalnih ukrepov in njihov vpliv na inflacijo ter povezavo med nekonsistentnostjo fiskalne politike in inflacijo. V empiričnem delu smo na osnovi podatkov iz podatkovne baze Eurostat analizirali gibanje inflacije od januarja 2020 do maja 2023. Analizirali smo inflacijo za evroobmočje in države evroobmočja ter prikazali stopnjo rasti indeksa HICP in 12 skupin dobrin indeksa HICP. Ugotovili smo, da se je z največjo inflacijo v preučevanem obdobju soočala Estonija, in sicer avgusta 2022 z letno stopnjo 25,2 %. Ugotovili smo tudi, da je največjo rast skupnega indeksa HICP od januarja 2020 do maja 2023 imela prav tako Estonija, kjer je stopnja rasti indeksa znašala 36,51 %. Prikazali smo tudi bistvene vzroke za tako gibanje inflacije v preučevanem obdobju ter ugotovili, da se je zvišala raven cen vseh skupin dobrin razen skupin dobrin »komunikacije« in »izobraževanje« v nekaterih državah. V diplomskem delu smo prav tako pregledali ukrepe ECB v preučevanem obdobju in ugotovili, da je ECB v tem obdobju izvajala tako ekspanzivno kot restriktivno denarno politiko.

Keywords

denarna politika;fiskalna politika;inflacija;stabilnost cen;evroobmočje;

Data

Language:	Slovenian
Year of publishing:	2023
Typology:	2.11 - Undergraduate Thesis
Organization:	UM EPF - Faculty of Economics and Business
Publisher:	M. Dogša
UDC:	336.748.12
COBISS:	164633091
Views:	27
Downloads:	6
Average score:	0 (0 votes)
Metadata:

Other data

Secondary language:	English
Secondary title:	Dynamics and analysis of inflation and monatery policy response in the euro area
Secondary abstract:	In this thesis, we reviewed the existing literature on inflation, its impacts, causes, methods of measurement, and the influence of economic policy on it. We explained the concepts of the CPI index, GDP deflator, HICP index, producer price index, cost-push inflation, demand-pull inflation, and price stability. We separately presented monetary and fiscal policy. For monetary policy, we examined its definition, objectives, strategy, instruments, and two applicable theoretical models: Taylor's rule and the quantity theory of money. For fiscal policy, we examined its definition, instruments, research on fiscal measures and their impact on inflation, as well as the link between fiscal policy inconsistency and inflation. In the empirical section, based on data from the Eurostat database, we analysed the movement of inflation from January 2020 to May 2023. We provided an overview of inflation for the euro area and euro area countries and displayed the growth rate of the overall HICP index and 12 groups of goods in the HICP index. We found that Estonia faced the highest inflation during the studied period, reaching an annual rate of 25.2 % in August 2022. We also found that Estonia had the highest growth rate of the overall HICP index from January 2020 to May 2023, with a rate of 36.51 %. We presented the most significant reasons for such inflation movements during the studied period and found that prices increased in all groups of goods across all countries, except for the »communication« and »education« groups, where prices decreased in some countries. Additionally, we reviewed the measures taken by the ECB during the studied period and found that the ECB implemented both expansionary and restrictive monetary policies during this period.
Secondary keywords:	inflation;monetary policy;fiscal policy;eurozone;price stability;
Type (COBISS):	Bachelor thesis/paper
Thesis comment:	Univ. v Mariboru, Ekonomsko-poslovna fak.
Pages:	II, 52 str., 25 str. pril.
ID:	19635858