ǂThe ǂbenefits, costs and feasibility of a low incidence COVID-19 strategy

Thomas Czypionka (Author), Emil Nafis Iftekhar (Author), Barbara Prainsack (Author), Viola Priesemann (Author), Simon Bauer (Author), André Calero Valdez (Author), Eva S. Schernhammer (Author), Ewa Szczurek (Author), Sotirios Tsiodras (Author), Peter Willeit (Author), Paul Wilmes (Author), Carlos Martins (Author), George N Pavlakis (Author), Matjaž Perc (Author), Elena Petelos (Author), Martyn Pickersgill (Author), Alexander Skupin (Author), Sarah Cuschieri (Author), Enrico Glaab (Author), Eva Grill (Author), Jenny Krutzinna (Author), Christos Lionis (Author), Helena Machado (Author)

Abstract

In the summer of 2021, European governments removed most NPIs after experiencing prolonged second and third waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. Most countries failed to achieve immunization rates high enough to avoid resurgence of the virus. Public health strategies for autumn and winter 2021 have ranged from countries aiming at low incidence by re-introducing NPIs to accepting high incidence levels. However, such high incidence strategies almost certainly lead to the very consequences that they seek to avoid: restrictions that harm people and economies. At high incidence, the important pandemic containment measure ‘test-trace-isolate-support’ becomes inefficient. At that point, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and its numerous harmful consequences can likely only be controlled through restrictions. We argue that all European countries need to pursue a low incidence strategy in a coordinated manner. Such an endeavour can only be successful if it is built on open communication and trust.

Keywords

dinamika bolezni;eksponentna rast;viralnost;strategija;ne zaključna dela;disease dynamics;exponential growth;virality;strategy;

Data

Language:	English
Year of publishing:	2022
Typology:	1.01 - Original Scientific Article
Organization:	UM FNM - Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics
Publisher:	Elsevier
UDC:	616-036.21
COBISS:	92022531
ISSN:	2666-7762
Views:	395
Downloads:	17
Average score:	0 (0 votes)
Metadata:

Other data

Secondary language:	Slovenian
Secondary keywords:	Covid-19;Epidemije;Evropa;
Type (COBISS):	Article
Pages:	str. 1-7
Issue:	ǂVol. ǂ13
Chronology:	Feb. 2022
DOI:	10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100294
ID:	19987736