Danijel Ivajnšič (Author), Iztok Škornik (Author), Mitja Kaligarič (Author), Lovrenc Lipej (Author)

Abstract

Podatki 6. poročila IPCC nakazujejo še intenzivnejši trend dviga morske gladine v drugi polovici stoletja. Piranski zaliv bi lahko bil v primeru uresničitve pesimističnih napovedi (ssp585) izpostavljen dvigu morske gladine tudi za 120 cm (v primerjavi z obdobjem 1995–2014). Nedvomno bodo zaradi tega prizadeta nizko ležeča obalna mokrišča in nanje vezani organizmi. Obrežne ptice (še posebej gnezdilke) bodo, zaradi visokega položaja v prehranjevalnem spletu obmorskih mokrišč, prvi pokazatelj okoljskih sprememb. V raziskavi obravnavamo odziv štirih vrst obrežnih ptic, kot so polojnik (Himantopus himantopus), beločeli deževnik (Charadrius alexandrinus), navadna (Sterna hirundo) in mala čigra (Sternula albifrons), na dvosmerni okoljski pritisk (dvig morske gladine in širjenje antropogenih dejavnosti) v Krajinskem parku Sečoveljske soline (KPSS). Oceno potencialne spremembe gnezditvene površine ptic zaradi dviga morske gladine smo izračunali na podlagi modelov razširjenosti vrst (Mahalanobisova tipičnost in Maxent). Ugotovitve kažejo, da se bosta beločeli deževnik in polojnik v KPSS kmalu soočila z zmanjšanjem potencialne gnezditvene površine, medtem ko so napovedi za obe vrsti čiger manj dramatične. Odkrit individualistični odzivi preučevanih vrst ptic na dvig morske gladine kot posledice podnebnih sprememb je lahko pomembna informacija za varstvene biologe v zavarovanih območjih, ki pripravljajo načrte za ublažitev negativnih vplivov na zavarovane habitate.

Keywords

obalna mokrišča;dvig morske gladine;gnezditveni vzorci;modeli razširjenosti vrst;Krajinski park Sečoveljske soline;

Data

Language: Slovenian
Year of publishing:
Typology: 1.16 - Independent Scientific Component Part or a Chapter in a Monograph
Organization: UM FNM - Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics
Publisher: Univerzitetna založba Univerze v Mariboru
UDC: 581.14(497.47)
COBISS: 120096259 Link will open in a new window
Parent publication: Primeri prostorskih analiz vplivov podnebnih sprememb
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Other data

Secondary language: English
Secondary title: Climate change impact on seashore-breeding birds
Secondary abstract: The sixth IPCC assessment report has indicated an even more intense sea level rise trend in the second half of the century. Pessimistic projections (ssp585) have estimated a potential sea level rise up to 120 cm in the Gulf of Piran (compared to the 1995-2014 baseline). Owing to their high position in the food chain in coastal wetlands, seashore-breeding birds will be the first to be impacted by increased environmental change. The study focused on the existing bilateral environmental pressure (sea levels rise, spread of anthropogenic disturbance) in the area of Sečovlje Salina Nature Park from the perspective of four bird species: the black-winged stilt, the Kentish plover, and the common and little tern. The estimate of potential change in available breeding ground area was calculated using species distribution models (Mahalanobis typicality and Maxent). The findings suggest that the Kentish plover and the black-winged stilt could soon face a reduction in potential breeding ground area, while the forecasts for both tern species are more optimistic. Such predictions of individual responses by these bird species to sea level rise may be a step forward for conservation biologists who are preparing plans to mitigate negative impacts on protected habitats.
Secondary keywords: coastal wetlands;sea level rise;nesting patterns;species distribution models;Sečovlje Salina Nature Park;
Type (COBISS): Article
Pages: Str. 123-159
DOI: 10.18690/um.fnm.8.2022.6
ID: 23984448