Iztok Podbregar (Author), Goran Šimić (Author), Mirjana Radovanović (Author), Sanja Filipović (Author), Damjan Maletič (Author), Polona Šprajc (Author)

Abstract

The world economy and society are in a complex process of transition characterized by a high degree of uncertainty. Therefore, further development and management of the transition will largely depend on the quality of the decisions made and, accordingly, on the decision-making process itself. The main goal of this study is to analyze the reliability of International Energy Security Risk Index as a tool to support the process of energy and economy transition decision making, as closely related and highly interdependent phenomena. The index is composed of 29 aggregated variables (grouped into eight categories), and the research is conducted on a research sample of 25 countries over a period of 36 years. The reliability assessment is performed by using Multiple Regression Analysis. Multicollinearity test, plus Multicollinearity test with Variance Inflation Factors, is used for methodological verification. The test results indicate a high degree of unreliability of the Index, as is concluded based on the observed errors in its methodological settings. These errors primarily relate to a high degree of multicollinearity in all 29 variables, whereby independent variables lose their independence and thus jeopardize reliability of the total Index. Out of the eight groups of variables, the fuel imports group is the only one that does not show big methodological errors. The paper presents a recommendation for the improvement of the observed Index (review of the role of individual variables found to be particularly methodologically indicative), as well as a recommendation for different distribution of weighting coefficients.

Keywords

energetski in gospodarski prehod;odločanje;indeks tveganja mednarodne energetske varnosti;večkratna regresijska analiza;energy and economy transition;decision making;international energy security risk index;multiple regression analysis;

Data

Language: English
Year of publishing:
Typology: 1.01 - Original Scientific Article
Organization: UM FOV - Faculty of Organizational Sciences
Publisher: MDPI
UDC: 351
COBISS: 22973955 Link will open in a new window
ISSN: 1996-1073
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Other data

Secondary language: Slovenian
Secondary keywords: energetski in gospodarski prehod;odločanje;indeks tveganja mednarodne energetske varnosti;večkratna regresijska analiza;multikolinearnost;
Type (COBISS): Scientific work
Pages: str. 1-16
Volume: ǂVol. ǂ13
Issue: ǂiss. ǂ14 (3691)
Chronology: 2020
DOI: 10.3390/en13143691
ID: 25839034