diplomska naloga
Matevž Menih (Author), Mojca Šraj (Mentor), Andrej Kryžanowski (Thesis defence commission member), Simon Rusjan (Thesis defence commission member)

Abstract

Poplave so naraven in izredno dinamičen pojav. V Sloveniji se pojavljajo kot posledica intenzivnih padavin in taljenja snega ali kombinacije obojega. Za učinkovito zaščito pred poplavami je zelo pomembna kvalitetna in zanesljiva izvedba verjetnostnih analiz, saj poplave povzročajo ogromno škodo in lahko ogrožajo tudi človeška življenja. V nalogi so verjetnostne analize visokih vod narejene na vzorcih letnih maksimumov. Metoda letnih maksimumov se v praksi uporablja najpogosteje. Predstavljene so različne teoretične porazdelitve in metoda momentov L za oceno njihovih parametrov. Opisanih je tudi nekaj statističnih testov, ki se uporabljajo za določitev najustreznejše porazdelitve. Predstavljen je tudi statistični Mann-Kendallov test za ugotavljanje trendov. V praktičnem delu naloge so za vodomerne postaje Slovenije narejene verjetnostne analize visokovodnih konic za različna 30-letna obdobja meritev. Pri verjetnostnih analizah je uporabljenih šest najpogosteje uporabljenih porazdelitvenih funkcij in narejena ocena parametrov po metodi momentov L. Z uporabo različnih testov smo za vsako postajo in obdobje izbrali porazdelitev, ki se najbolj prilega merjenim podatkom. Primerjali smo projektne pretoke izbranih povratnih dob med obdobjema 1961-1990 in 1981-2010 ter ugotovili, da lahko izbrano obdobje meritev pomembno vpliva na rezultate verjetnostnih analiz oz. da ima spremenljivost podnebja pomemben vpliv tudi na projektne pretoke večine vodomernih postaj v Sloveniji.

Keywords

diplomska naloga;UNI-B;gradbeništvo;VOI;metoda letnih maksimumov;metoda L-momentov;verjetnostna analiza visokih vod;Mann-Kendall test;

Data

Language: Slovenian
Year of publishing:
Typology: 2.11 - Undergraduate Thesis
Organization: UL FGG - Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering
Publisher: M. Menih
UDC: 519.2:556.166(497.4)(043.2)
COBISS: 6655329 Link will open in a new window
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Other data

Secondary language: English
Secondary title: Analysis of the impact of the selected measurement period on the results of flood frequency analyses
Secondary abstract: Floods are a natural and a very dynamic phenomena. In Slovenia they may occur due to intense rainfall, snowmelt or a combination of both. Quality and reliable flood frequency analyses are necessary for effective flood protection, as floods caused extensive damage and can also threaten human lives. In the thesis flood frequency analyses were carried out with annual maximum series method which is most often used in practice. Different theoretical distributions are presented and the method of Lmoments for parameters estimation. Some statistical tests used to determine the most appropriate distribution are described. A statistical Mann-Kendall test for determing trends is also presented. In the practical part of the thesis flood frequency analyses for different 30-year periods of measurements for gauging station Slovenia are made. Six most commonly used distribution functions were used and parameters were estimated with the method of L-moments. Different tests were used to select the best fitting distribution for each measuring period and station. We compared the design flow of the selected return periods between the periods 1961-1990 and 1981-2010 and found that the selected measurement period has a significant impact on the results of the flood frequency analyses or in other words that climate variability has a significant impact on the design flow of the majority of gauging stations in Slovenia.
Secondary keywords: graduation thesis;civil engineering;annual maximum series method;method of L-moments;flood frequency analysis;flow;Mann-Kendall test;
File type: application/pdf
Type (COBISS): Bachelor thesis/paper
Thesis comment: Univ. v Ljubljani, Fak. za gradbeništvo in geodezijo
Pages: XII, 58 str.
ID: 8708209