magistrsko delo
Žiga Kozelj (Author), Dejan Dragan (Mentor)

Abstract

Zaradi vse večjega pomena pomorskega transporta je potrebno na tem področju zagotoviti varnost vseh udeležencev in uporabnikov prometne storitve. Za zagotavljanje varnosti je potrebno ukrepati preventivno, saj lahko tako v veliki meri zmanjšamo ali celo preprečimo katastrofalne posledice pomorskih nesreč. Ker je plovba velikokrat pogojena s stanjem na morju, je zelo priporočljivo poznati vremensko napoved, ki predstavlja eno izmed sredstev preventivnega ukrepanja. V magistrskem delu bodo najprej predstavljene značilnosti stohastičnih procesov, markovskih procesov in markovskih verig. Za potrebe mehke logike bodo predstavljene tudi osnove mehke logike in logičnega sistema. S pomočjo markovskih verig bomo nato za različne vremenske spremenljivke na območju JV-Grčije zasnovali avtomate za napovedovanje vremena ter prikazali simulacijske primere in verifikacijo uporabnosti rezultatov. Na podlagi rezultatov, ki jih bomo pridobili s pomočjo markovskih verig, pa bomo poskušali napovedi za posamezno spremenljivko uporabiti pri razvoju mehkega modela, ki bo napovedoval varnost plovbe v pomorskem prometu.

Keywords

markovske verige;napovedovanje vremena;mehka logika;varnost plovbe;

Data

Language: Slovenian
Year of publishing:
Typology: 2.09 - Master's Thesis
Organization: UM FL - Faculty of Logistics
Publisher: [Ž. Kozelj]
UDC: 656.6:519.2(043.2)
COBISS: 512541245 Link will open in a new window
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Downloads: 147
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Other data

Secondary language: English
Secondary title: Weather-based forecasting of ship transport safety by means of Markov chains and Fuzzy logic
Secondary abstract: Because of the growing importance of maritime transport it is necessary to ensure the safety of all participants and users of transport services. It is very important that we act preventively because we can reduce or even prevent the catastrophic consequences of maritime accidents. Ship transport is often conditioned by the sea state and it is highly recommended to know the weather forecast, which is one of the means of preventive action. In this thesis we will present the basic characteristics of stochastic process, Markov process and Markov chains. For the purpose of fuzzy logic we will present the bases of fuzzy logic and fuzzy logic system. By using Markov chains we will design transition diagrams for different weather variables in SE Greece. Based on the transition diagrams we will show simulation examples and verify the results. At the end we will use those results for development of the fuzzy model which will be able to predict ship transport safety.
Secondary keywords: Markov chain;weather forecasting;fuzzy logic;ship transport safety;
URN: URN:SI:UM:
Type (COBISS): Master's thesis/paper
Thesis comment: Univ. v Mariboru, Fak. za logistiko Celje
Pages: VIII, 147 f., [1] str. pril.
ID: 8727252