Napovedovanje gibanja valutnih tečajev s pomočjo fundamentalne analize

diplomsko delo

Sebastijan Eder (Author), Sebastjan Strašek (Mentor)

Abstract

Kljub temu, da je bila moja glavna naloga v tem diplomskem delu predstaviti fundamentalno analizo, sem se napovedovanja gibanja valutnih tečajev lotil v precej širšem smislu fundamentalne analize, kot bi se lahko. S tem sem želel poudariti, da lahko fundamentalno analizo razumemo širše ali ožje, kot je definirana. Sama definicija predvideva vse makroekonomske podatke opisane v tretjem poglavju diplomskega dela ter doda še druge vplive, kot so novice in sentiment na trgu, vendar tudi vse to znanje ne pomeni nič, če ga ne znamo povezati v celotno sliko. Samo fundamentalni podatki ne premikajo cen na trgu, premikajo jih kapitalski tokovi. Kapitalski tokovi, ki se stekajo v naložbe z višjim donosom ali manjšim tveganjem, odvisno od sentimenta na trgu. Višji donosi so načeloma ponujeni v bolj zdravih gospodarstvih, občasno, v negotovih časih, pa ti kapitalski tokovi stečejo nazaj v manj donosnejša vendar varnejša premoženja oz. naložbe. In realnost je taka, da bi to držalo 100 % časa, če bi bili trgi popolnoma učinkoviti, kar pa niso zaradi več razlogov. Eden od njih je, da je trg sestavljen iz ljudi, in ljudje lahko imajo pomanjkljive informacije ali pa jih narobe interpretirajo. Poleg tega obstajajo še drugi dejavniki, ki poganjajo trg v zelo majhnih časovnih okvirjih in nimajo nič opraviti s kapitalskimi tokovi, ki so del fundamentalne analize. Kakorkoli obrnemo, dejstvo ostaja, da fundamentalni podatki pomembno vplivajo na te kapitalske tokove.

Keywords

valuta;tečaj;trgovanje;valutni trg;devizni tečaji;finančna kriza;

Data

Language:	Slovenian
Year of publishing:	2014
Typology:	2.11 - Undergraduate Thesis
Organization:	UM EPF - Faculty of Economics and Business
Publisher:	[S. Eder]
UDC:	336.74
COBISS:	11814684
Views:	1055
Downloads:	166
Average score:	0 (0 votes)
Metadata:

Other data

Secondary language:	English
Secondary title:	Forecasting the currency exchange rate using fundamental analysis
Secondary abstract:	Even though my main mission for this thesis was to introduce the fundamental analysis when forecasting the currency exchange rate, I wanted to tackle the problem in a broader sense that I originally could have. By doing this I wanted to emphasise that the fundamental analysis can be understood in a broader or a narrower sense than its core definition. Its definition combines all economic data described in chapter 3 and moreover ads other influences, like the impact of news and market sentiment. I could be as bold as to say that even all this knowledge does not mean a thing without knowing how to connect all this information into a bigger picture. Only fundamental data do not move the market by itself, capital flows do. Capital flows that flow into better risk adjusted yields. Higher yields are normally offered by healthier economies but during times when risk outweigh yields capital flows back into lower yielding but safer assets. And that would be the case if the markets were efficient, which they are not for many reasons. One of them is that markets are made by people and people can misinterpret things at times or lack the right information or simply be wrong or emotional about it. There are also many other factors that move the market on a smaller timescale and have nothing to do with capital flows. However, it would be fair to say that fundamentals influence capital flow drastically.
Secondary keywords:	currency;trading;fundamental analysis;forex;EUR;USD;
URN:	URN:SI:UM:
Type (COBISS):	Undergraduate thesis
Thesis comment:	Univ. v Mariboru, Ekonomsko-poslovna fak.
Pages:	57 f.
ID:	8730413