Verjetnostna analiza pretočnih volumnov s programskim orodjem HEC - SSP

diplomska naloga

Lea Ribič (Author), Mojca Šraj (Mentor), Dušan Žagar (Thesis defence commission member), Matjaž Mikoš (Thesis defence commission member), Andrej Kryžanowski (Co-mentor)

Abstract

V zadnjih desetletjih se vse pogosteje soočamo s številnimi hidrološkimi problemi, ki predstavljajo velik izziv in preizkušnjo za človeštvo. Danes je potreba po orodjih, ki izvajajo kompleksnejše analize hidrološkega režima, izredno velika, saj se lahko le z ustreznim preučevanjem, predvidevanjem in napovedovanjem možnih ekstremnih dogodkov nanje delno pripravimo in učinkovito izvajamo ukrepe za zaščito. Poznavanje soodvisnosti pretok – trajanje – verjetnost omogoča kompleksnejšo verjetnostno analizo, ki celoviteje opredeli pojave in vplive različnih posegov na pojave. Verjetnostna analiza pretočnih volumnov vključuje klasično verjetnostno analizo pretokov znotraj vsakega niza z določenim trajanjem. Povprečni pretoki so najprej izračunani na podlagi različnih stalnih trajanj. Nato pa je za vsako trajanje izvedena verjetnostna analiza letnih maksimalnih (minimalnih) pretokov z izbrano teoretično porazdelitvijo. V diplomski nalogi smo s programom HEC-SSP izvedli verjetnostno analizo pretočnih volumnov na vodomernih postajah v Sloveniji. Na primeru vodomerne postaje Jesenice na reki Savi Dolinki je prikazan celoten potek tovrstne verjetnostne analize, katere rezultate smo v zadnjem delu naloge uporabili na primeru akumulacijskega bazena HE Moste. Poskušali smo prikazati, kako z zadrževanjem maksimalnih pretokov različnih trajanj vplivamo na zmanjšanje pretokov dolvodno od pregrade, ter določili potrebni zadrževalni volumen akumulacije pri danem maksimalnem pretočnem volumnu in ob upoštevanju obratovalnega instaliranega in doinstaliranega pretoka hidroelektrarne Moste.

Keywords

gradbeništvo;diplomska naloga;UNI;VKI;pretok;volumen;trajanje;verjetnostna analiza;HEC-SSP;krivulja volumen - trajanje;akumulacija;

Data

Language:	Slovenian
Year of publishing:	2015
Typology:	2.11 - Undergraduate Thesis
Organization:	UL FGG - Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering
Publisher:	[L. Ribič]
UDC:	004.42:556.1(043.2)
COBISS:	6973537
Views:	2069
Downloads:	335
Average score:	0 (0 votes)
Metadata:

Other data

Secondary language:	English
Secondary title:	Volume frequency analysis using HEC - SSP software
Secondary abstract:	In recent decades we are increasingly facing with many hydrological problems that pose a great challenge and test for humanity. Today, there is a significant need for tools that perform complex analysis of the hydrological regime. On the possible extreme events can be partially prepared and we can effectively implement measures to protect only through adequate studying, predicting and forecasting them. Knowing the interdependence of flow – duration – frequency allows more complex frequency analysis, which comprehensively defines the occurrence and impact of different interventions on the phenomena. Volume frequency analysis involves classic frequency analysis of maximum (minimum) flow within each of a set of specified durations. Average flow rates are first calculated based on different fixed durations. Then, for each duration frequency analysis of maximum (minimum) flow is performed with selected theoretical distribution. In the thesis we performed volume frequency analysis with HEC – SSP software for gauging stations in Slovenia. The entire course of volume frequency analysis is shown for gauging station Jesenice on the river Sava Dolinka. The results were used for the case of the reservoir HPP Moste, where we tried to show how the containment of flood flows with different durations influence on reducing the flow downstream of the barrier. We also determined the necessary containment volume of the reservoir for a given maximum inflow volume and the operational installed flow of the HPP Moste.
Secondary keywords:	graduation thesis;civil engineering;flow;volume;duration;frequency analysis;HEC-SSP;volume - duration curves;storage reservoir;
File type:	application/pdf
Type (COBISS):	Undergraduate thesis
Thesis comment:	Univ. v Ljubljani, Fak. za gradbeništvo in geodezijo
Pages:	XII, 70 str., 3 pril.
ID:	8752121