Estimation of design floods using univariate and multivariate flood frequency approach with regard to one wet year

Nejc Bezak (Author), Matjaž Mikoš (Author)

Abstract

The determination of design discharges and flood waves volumes is an important aspect of river engineering. The univariate annual maximum (AM), peaks-over-threshold (POT) and multivariate copula methods were used in this hydrologic study to investigate the impact of one wet year on the estimation of flood-related design variables. The flood frequency analyses (FFA) were performed using daily and hourly discharge data from three torrential streams in Slovenia where several flash floods occurred in the last decade. The results of the study indicate that the use of daily discharge data is inappropriate in case of torrential streams because the loss on information when compared to hourly hydrologic data is significant. The consideration of one wet year in the data sample has influence on the relationship between design variable and return period; however this influence is generally smaller than influence of the selected method to perform the FFA.

Keywords

flood frequency analyses;annual maximums;peaks-over-threshold;copulas;climate change;

Data

Language:	English
Year of publishing:	2014
Typology:	1.01 - Original Scientific Article
Organization:	UL FGG - Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering
Publisher:	Univerza v Ljubljani, Fakulteta za gradbeništvo in geodezijo
UDC:	519.676:551.7.06
COBISS:	7409761
ISSN:	0352-3551
Views:	1102
Downloads:	434
Average score:	0 (0 votes)
Metadata:

Other data

Secondary language:	Slovenian
Secondary title:	Ocena projektnih pretokov z uporabo univariatnih ter multivariatnih metod s poudarkom na vplivu nadpovprečno mokrega leta
Secondary abstract:	Določitev projektnih pretokov in poplavnih valov je pomemben korak pri načrtovanju hidrotehničnih objektov. Uporabili smo metodo letnih maksimumov (AM), metodo vrednosti nad izbranim pragom (POT) ter multivariatno metodo z uporabo funkcij kopula za določitev vpliva izrazito nadpovprečno mokrega leta na rezultate verjetnostnih analiz. Verjetnostne analize (FFA) so bile izvedene z uporabo podatkov o pretokih z urnim ter dnevnim časovnim korakom. Uporabljeni so bili podatki s treh hudourniških porečij v Sloveniji, kjer so se v preteklem desetletju zgodili številni ekstremni dogodki. Rezultati analiz so pokazali, da je uporaba podatkov z dnevnim časovnim korakom neprimerna za hudourniška območja, ker se veliko informacij o dejanskih konicah pretokov izgubi v primerjavi z urnimi podatki. Upoštevanje dodatnega nadpovprečno mokrega leta v analizah sicer ima vpliv na projektne pretoke, vendar je ta vpliv v večini primerov manjši kot vpliv izbire metode za izvedbo verjetnostnih analiz.
Secondary keywords:	verjetnostne analize;metoda letnih maksimumov;metoda vrednosti nad izbranim pragom;kopule;klimatske spremembe;
URN:	URN:NBN:SI
File type:	application/pdf
Type (COBISS):	Not categorized
Pages:	str. 103-117
Volume:	27
Issue:	ǂ[št.] ǂ47
Chronology:	2014
ID:	9150290