ǂa ǂsystem dynamics model and economic analysis
Črtomir Rozman (Author), Miroljub Kljajić (Author), Karmen Pažek (Author)

Abstract

Background and Purpose: The sugar beet is the main field crop used for sugar production in the temperate climatic zone. Since investment in sugar beet industry are long term and ireversible the decision support and economic analysis are required in order to maximise investment returns. Methodology: A system dynamics methodology was chosen to model the impacts of regional sugar factory investments. We present the basic concepts of system dynamics (SD) models and their development in the case of sugar beet production and processing systems. Sugar beet economics are also analyzed using the static technological economic simulation model. Results: The simulation provides answers to strategic questions related to the total sugar beet production and processing system and will be used for the simulation of different scenarios for sugar production and their impact on economic and environmental parameters at an aggregate level. Furthermore, the feasibility analysis of sugar beet production revealed that at the current price and intensity levels (yields), we can expect profitable sugar beet production for both white sugar and ethanol. Conclusion: Preliminary results show that under expected production parameters the sugar beet processing and production would be economically feasible.

Keywords

sugar beet;modeling;system dynamics;economic feasibility;

Data

Language: English
Year of publishing:
Typology: 1.01 - Original Scientific Article
Organization: UM FKBV - Faculty of Agriculture
UDC: 631
COBISS: 7463443 Link will open in a new window
ISSN: 1318-5454
Parent publication: Organizacija
Views: 1022
Downloads: 180
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Other data

Secondary language: Slovenian
Secondary title: Pridelava sladkorja in sladkorne pese
Secondary abstract: Ozadje in namen: Sladkorna pesa je glavna kultura, ki se uporablja za proizvodnjo sladkorja v zmernem klimatskem pasu. Ker so naložbe v predelavo sladkorne pese dolgoročne in ireverzibilne, je z uporabo ustreznih orodij potrebno odločitve pretehtati Metodologija: Metodologija sistemske dinamike je bila izbrana za podporo odločanju na regionalnem nivoju pri planiranju investicij v predelavo sladkorne pese. Predstavljamo osnovne pojme sistemske dinamike (SD) in razvoj modela pridelave in predelave sladkorne pese in predelovalnih sistemih. S pomočjo tehnološko ekonomskega simulacijskega modela pa analiziramo ekonomiko pridelave sladkorne pese. Rezultati: Model ponuja odgovore na strateška vprašanja, ki so povezana s predelavo sladkorne pese in bo uporabljen za simulacijo različnih scenarijev za proizvodnjo sladkorja in njihovega vpliva na gospodarske in okoljske parametre na agregatni ravni. Analiza ekonomske upravičenosti proizvodnje sladkorne pese je pokazala, da pri sedanjih cenah in intenzivnosti pridelave (pričakovan pridelek), lahko pričakujemo dobičkonosno proizvodnjo sladkorne pese tako za beli sladkor kot etanol. Zaključek: Preliminarni rezultati so pokazali, da ob doseganju predvidenih parametrov lahko pričakujemo ekonomsko upravičeno pridelavo in predelavo sladkorne pese.
Secondary keywords: sladkorna pesa;modeliranje;sistemska dinamika;ekonomska upravičenost;
URN: URN:NBN:SI
Type (COBISS): Scientific work
Pages: str. 145-154
Volume: ǂVol. ǂ48
Issue: ǂno. ǂ3
Chronology: aug. 2015
DOI: 10.1515/orga-2015-0017
ID: 9599688
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, in memoriam professor emeritus D.Sc. Miroljub Kljajić