diplomsko delo
Andrej Pauman (Author), Dušan Zbašnik (Mentor)

Abstract

V okviru diplomske naloge sem predstavil različne modele določanja deviznih tečajev, ki skupaj tvorijo temeljno analizo. Na eni strani so to klasični modeli h katerim prištevamo: pariteto kupne moči, pariteto obrestne mere, monetarno ter plačilno bilančno teorijo. Na drugi strani sem uporabil novejše pristope pri določanju deviznih tečajev, primer katerega je napovedovanje deviznih tečajev s pomočjo novic. Poleg splošnih teorij determiniranja deviznega tečaja sem osvetlil tudi najpomembnejše fundamentalne indikatorje za območje EU in ZDA. Ugotovil in poiskal sem razloge za prevladujoč položaj ameriškega dolarja v primerjavi z evrom. Na primeru EUR/USD sem testiral ali je gibanje valutnega para v skladu s temeljno teorijo. Gibanje valutnega para sem primerjal tako z vidika klasičnim modelov determiniranja deviznih tečajev, kot tudi posameznih makroekonomskih komponent. Ugotovil sem, da je pri večini modelov prišlo do precejšnjih neskladij, skozi različna obdobja, gibanje valutnega para pa je pogosto tudi v nasprotju z izbrano teorijo. Tako z gotovostjo na primeru EUR/USD ne morem potrditi nobene izmed teorij. Tudi številne empirične študije ugotavljajo, da prihaja do odstopanj med modeli ter dejanskim gibanjem tečajev. Razloge za takšno stanje gre verjetno iskati v kompleksnosti in nepredvidljivosti valutnega trga, predvsem pa v udeležencih samih ter njihovem špekulativnem ravnanju. Značilno za teorije deviznih tečajev je, da so se spreminjale, oziroma dopolnjevale ter nastajale vedno nove, kljub temu pa do danes ne razpolagamo s končno teorijo pri pojasnjevanju deviznih tečajev. Teorija, ki bi lahko zanesljivo napovedovala oziroma analizirala spremembe deviznih tečajev ne obstaja, saj gre za kompleksno prepletenost, kjer vseh informacij ni mogoče zajeti. To potrjujejo tudi empirične raziskave.

Keywords

devizni tečaji;devizni trg;analiza;evro;

Data

Language: Slovenian
Year of publishing:
Source: Maribor
Typology: 2.11 - Undergraduate Thesis
Organization: UM EPF - Faculty of Economics and Business
Publisher: [A. Pauman]
UDC: 339.743
COBISS: 11113756 Link will open in a new window
Views: 3395
Downloads: 443
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Other data

Secondary language: English
Secondary title: EUR/USD fundamental exchange rate analysis
Secondary abstract: I have presented a variety of exchange rate models in this paper, which are the basis of the fundamental analysis. There are classic exchange rate models like: purchasing power parity, interest rate parity, the monetary approach and balance of payments approach. And there are recent models of exchange rates, like the news approach. I have presented some important US and EU fundamental indicators, and also the reasons for the dominant position of the US dollar against euro. In the case of EUR/USD I have tested the exchange rate movement for fundamental behavior. I have compared some classic models of exchange rate determination and also some important macroeconomic components. I have found out that in the case of most theoretical models there is some discordance between particular periods. The exchange rate movement is also often contradictory with the selected exchange rate model. In the case of EUR/USD I can’t confirm any of the tested exchange rate model with certainty. Also many empirical studies have found out that there are some differences between exchange rate movements and their theoretical framework. We can search for causes in the complexity and unpredictability of the forex market, and particular in the speculative behavior of the participants. Exchange rate models have been changing over different time periods and often there have been announced new ones. Despite of that, to this day not even one exchange rate model is capable to fully predict exchange rate movements. Empirical studies also confirm that.
Secondary keywords: fundamental analysis;exchange rate;appreciation;depreciation;purchasing power parity;interest rate parity;EUR/USD;carry-trade;international Fisher effect;fundamental indicator;monetary approach;balance of payments approach;interest rate;money supply;
URN: URN:SI:UM:
Type (COBISS): Undergraduate thesis
Thesis comment: Univ. v Mariboru, Ekonomsko-poslovna fak.
Pages: 66 str.
Keywords (UDC): social sciences;družbene vede;economics;economic science;ekonomija;ekonomske vede;trade;commerce;international economic relations;world economy;trgovina;tržišče;marketing;international finance;mednarodne finance;mednarodna plačila;mednarodni denarni trg in trg kapitala;mednarodne banke;
ID: 996391