Igor Leščešen (Avtor), Mojca Šraj (Avtor), Biljana Basarin (Avtor), Dragoslav Pavić (Avtor), Minučer Mesaroš (Avtor), Manfred Mudelsee (Avtor)

Povzetek

Regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) is a powerful method for interrogating hydrological series since it combines observational time series from several sites within a region to estimate risk-relevant statistical parameters with higher accuracy than from single-site series. Since RFFA extreme value estimates depend on the shape of the selected distribution of the data-generating stochastic process, there is need for a suitable goodness-of-distributional-fit measure in order to optimally utilize given data. Here we present a novel, least-squares-based measure to select the optimal fit from a set of five distributions, namely Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Logistic, Gumbel, Log-Normal Type III and Log-Pearson Type III. The fit metric is applied to annual maximum discharge series from six hydrological stations along the Sava River in South-eastern Europe, spanning the years 1961 to 2020. Results reveal that (1) the Sava River basin can be assessed as hydrologically homogeneous and (2) the GEV distribution provides typically the best fit. We offer hydrological-meteorological insights into the differences among the six stations. For the period studied, almost all stations exhibit statistically insignificant trends, which renders the conclusions about flood risk as relevant for hydrological sciences and the design of regional flood protection infrastructure.

Ključne besede

časovne serije pretokov;verjetnostna analiza poplav;generalizirana porazdelitev ekstremnih vrednosti;discharge time series;flood risk analysis;generalized extreme value distribution;

Podatki

Jezik: Angleški jezik
Leto izida:
Tipologija: 1.01 - Izvirni znanstveni članek
Organizacija: UL FGG - Fakulteta za gradbeništvo in geodezijo
UDK: 556
COBISS: 120436227 Povezava se bo odprla v novem oknu
ISSN: 2071-1050
Št. ogledov: 23
Št. prenosov: 18
Ocena: 0 (0 glasov)
Metapodatki: JSON JSON-RDF JSON-LD TURTLE N-TRIPLES XML RDFA MICRODATA DC-XML DC-RDF RDF

Ostali podatki

Sekundarni jezik: Slovenski jezik
Sekundarni naslov: Regionalna verjetnostna analiza poplav reke Save v jugovzhodni Evropi
Sekundarne ključne besede: časovne serije pretokov;verjetnostna analiza poplav;generalizirana porazdelitev ekstremnih vrednosti;
Vrsta dela (COBISS): Članek v reviji
Strani: 19 str.
Letnik: ǂVol. ǂ14
Zvezek: ǂiss. ǂ15, art. 9282
Čas izdaje: 2022
DOI: 10.3390/su14159282
ID: 16534309