Monika Dokl (Avtor), Anja Copot (Avtor), Damjan Krajnc (Avtor), Yee Van Fan (Avtor), Annamaria Kiraly (Avtor), Kathleen B. Aviso (Avtor), Raymond R. Tan (Avtor), Zdravko Kravanja (Avtor), Lidija Čuček (Avtor)

Povzetek

Excessive production, indiscriminate consumption, and improper disposal of plastics have led to plastic pollution and its hazardous environmental effects. Various approaches to tackle the challenges of reducing the plastic footprint have been developed and applied, such as the production of alternative materials (design for recycling), the production and use of biodegradable plastic and plastics from power-to-X, and the development of recycling approaches. This study proposes an optimisation strategy based on regression to evaluate and predict plastic use and end-of-life fate in the future based on historical trends. The mathematical model is formulated and correlations based on functions of time are developed and optimised by minimising the sum of squared residuals. The plastic quantities up to the year 2050 are projected based on historical trends analysis, and for improved sustainability, projections are additionally based on intervention analyses. The results show that the global use of plastics is expected to increase from 464 Mt in 2020 up to 884 Mt in 2050, with up to 4725 Mt of plastics accumulated in stock in 2050 (from the year 2000). Compared to other available forecasts, a slightly lower level of plastic use and stock are obtained. The intervention analysis estimates a range of global plastics' consumption between 594 Mt and 1018 Mt in 2050 by taking into account its different increment rates (between −1 % and 2.65 %). In the packaging sector, the implementation of reduction targets (15 % reduction in 2040 compared to 2018) could lead to a 27.3 % decrease in plastic use in 2050 as compared to 2018, while achieving recycling targets (55 % in 2030) would recycle >75 % of plastic packaging in 2050. The partial substitution of fossil-based plastics with bioplastics (polyethylene) will require significant land area, between 0.2 × 106 km2 for obtaining switchgrass and up to around 1.0 × 106 km2 for obtaining forest residue (annual yields of 58.15 t/ha and 3.5 t/ha) in 2050. The intervention analysis shows that proactive policies can mitigate sustainability challenges, however achieving broader sustainability goals also requires reduction of footprints related to energy production and virgin plastic production, the production of bio-based plastics, and the full implementation of recycling initiatives.

Ključne besede

uporaba plastike;plastični odpadki;analiza;napovedi;trendi v zgodovini;plastic use;plastic waste;end-of-life fate;forecasting;hostorical trends;regression analysis;least square method;intervention analysis;

Podatki

Jezik: Angleški jezik
Leto izida:
Tipologija: 1.01 - Izvirni znanstveni članek
Organizacija: UM FKKT - Fakulteta za kemijo in kemijsko tehnologijo
Založnik: Elsevier Ltd.
UDK: 620.9
COBISS: 212653059 Povezava se bo odprla v novem oknu
ISSN: 2352-5509
Št. ogledov: 0
Št. prenosov: 0
Ocena: 0 (0 glasov)
Metapodatki: JSON JSON-RDF JSON-LD TURTLE N-TRIPLES XML RDFA MICRODATA DC-XML DC-RDF RDF

Ostali podatki

Sekundarni jezik: Slovenski jezik
Sekundarne ključne besede: uporaba plastike;plastični odpadki;analiza;napovedi;trendi v zgodovini;
Vrsta dela (COBISS): Članek v reviji
Strani: str. 498-518
Zvezek: ǂVol. ǂ51
Čas izdaje: Nov. 2024
DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2024.09.025
ID: 25814510
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