Synergies between an observed port and a logistic company

application of the discounted cash-flow model and the Monte Carlo simulation

Dejan Dragan (Author), Bojan Rosi (Author), Toni Avžner (Author)

Abstract

The paper addresses an analysis of potential synergies in collaboration between an observed Port in the Mediterranean Sea and Central-European logistic railway-services based company. Both companies have established a strategic partnership. The main motive was cooperation in rail transport, with a particular emphasis on potential synergies that would a rail traffic have brought to a port's business. For the purpose of synergies valuation under uncertain conditions, a Monte Carlo simulation-based framework with integrated discounted cash flow (DCF) model is applied. The possible values of future synergies are calculated via the DCF model by simultaneously changing values of different uncertain financial parameters at each repetition of a Monte Carlo scenario-playing mechanism. In this process, predicted forecasts of future synergetic throughputs are also used for various types of observed cargo. As it turned out, the generated synergies' values follow the approximate normal distribution. Based on statistical inference and analysis of probability intervals it was discovered that there might indeed exist certain important synergies in the collaboration between both companies. This fact has convinced us into a belief in the correctness of companies' decision to enter into such kind of strategic cooperation.

Keywords

ekonomija pristanišč;finančno upravljanje;vrednotenje;znižani model denarnega toka;simulacija Monte Carlo;logistika;port economics;financial management;valuation;discounted cash-flow model;Monte Carlo simulation;logistics;

Data

Language:	English
Year of publishing:	2017
Typology:	1.01 - Original Scientific Article
Organization:	UM FL - Faculty of Logistics
UDC:	656.6
COBISS:	512846141
ISSN:	2232-4968
Views:	1035
Downloads:	180
Average score:	0 (0 votes)
Metadata:

Other data

Secondary language:	Slovenian
Secondary keywords:	ekonomija pristanišč;finančno upravljanje;vrednotenje;znižani model denarnega toka;simulacija Monte Carlo;logistika;
URN:	URN:SI:UM:
Type (COBISS):	Scientific work
Pages:	str. 1-18
Volume:	ǂVol. ǂ8
Issue:	ǂno. ǂ1
Chronology:	May 2017
DOI:	10.1515/jlst-2017-0001
ID:	10847112