Mejra Festić (Author), Alenka Kavkler (Author), Silvo Dajčman (Author)

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to analyze and compare the fractal structure of the Croatian and Hungarian stock market returns. The presence of long memory components in asset returns provides evidence against the weak-form of stock market effi ciency. The starting working hypothesis that there is no long memory in the Croatian and Hungarian stock market returns is tested by applying the Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) (1992) test, Loʼs (1991) modifi ed rescaled range (R/S) test, and the wavelet ordinary least squares (WOLS) estimator of Jensen (1999). The research showed that the WOLS estimator may lead to different conclusions regarding long memory presence in the stock returns from the KPSS and unit root tests or Loʼs R/S test. Furthermore, it proved that the fractal structure of individual stock returns may be masked in aggregated stock market returns (i.e. in returns of stock index). The main finding of the paper is that both the Croatian stock index Crobex and individual stocks in this index exhibit long memory. Long memory is identified for some stocks in the Hungarian stock market as well, but not for the stock market index BUX. Based on the results of the long memory tests, it can be concluded that while the Hungarian stock market is weak form efficient, the Croatian stock market is not.

Keywords

borze;borzništvo;hipoteze;ekonometrični modeli;Hrvatska;Madžarska;

Data

Language: English
Year of publishing:
Typology: 1.01 - Original Scientific Article
Organization: UM EPF - Faculty of Economics and Business
UDC: 336.76:336.761
COBISS: 11279644 Link will open in a new window
ISSN: 1331-8004
Views: 650
Downloads: 79
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Other data

Secondary language: Croatian
Secondary title: Dugoročna memorija u prinosima hrvatskog i madžarskog dioničkog tržišta
Secondary abstract: U ovom radu analizira se dugoročna memorija prinosa hrvatskog i madžarskog dioničkog tržišta. Prisutnost dugoročne memorije u prinosima dokaz je neučinkovitosti dioničkog tržišta. Pod pretpostavkom da je moguće prinose modelirati kao ARFIMA (engl. Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average) procese, aplicirani su Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) (1992) test i Jensenova (1999) valna metoda klasičnih najmanjih kvadrata (engl. wavelet ordinary least squares – WOLS) kako bi se dobila ocjena parametra integriranosti prinosa dioničkih tržišta. Rezultati ove studije ukazuju na to da WOLS, KPSS i R/S metoda vode do različitih konstatacija o dugoročnoj memoriji u prinosima dioničkog tržišta. Nadalje, utvrđeno je da dugoročna memorija u prinosima pojedinačnih dionica može biti ˝zamaskirana˝ u agregatnim prinosima dioničkog indeksa, koji uključuje ove dionice. Stoga je za investitore bitno da istovremeno testiraju i potencijalnu prisutnost dugoročne memorije u prinosima indeksa dioničkog tržišta i pojedinačne dionice u koje investiranju. Ključni rezultat studije je dokaz o dugoročnoj memoriji u prinosima hrvatskog dioničkog indeksa Crobex i pojedinačnih dionica u indeksu. Dugoročna memorija identifi cirana je i za pojedinačne dionice na madžarskom dioničkom tržištu, ali ne i za sam indeks BUX. Na temelju rezultata testova dugoročne memorije, odbačena je hipoteza slabe tržišne učinkovitosti za hrvatsko, ali ne i za madžarsko dioničko tržište. Ključne
Secondary keywords: borze;borzništvo;hipoteze;ekonometrični modeli;Hrvatska;Madžarska;
URN: URN:SI:UM:
Type (COBISS): Scientific work
Pages: str. 115-139
Volume: ǂVol. ǂ30
Issue: ǂno. ǂ1
Chronology: 2012
ID: 10850370