Comparison of the evolution of the COVID-19 disease between Romania and Italy

Ciprian Chiruţa (Author), Emilian Bulgariu (Author), Jurij Avsec (Author), Brigita Ferčec (Author), Matej Mencinger (Author)

Abstract

After the outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy, thousands of Romanian citizens who worked in Northern Italy, Spain or Germany returned to Romania. Based on the time-dependent susceptible–infected–recovered—SIR model, this paper compares the evolution of the COVID-19 disease between Romania and Italy, assuming that the parameter value of R0 in the time-dependent SIR model decreases to R1 < R0 after publicly announced restrictions by the government, and increases to a value of R2 < R1 when the restrictions are lifted. Among other things, we answer the questions about the date and extent of the second peak in Italy and Romania with respect to different values of R2 and the duration of the restrictions.

Keywords

razvoj pandemije COVID-19;časovno odvisen model SIR;COVID-19 pandemic evolution;time dependent SIR model;

Data

Language:	English
Year of publishing:	2020
Typology:	1.01 - Original Scientific Article
Organization:	UM FGPA - Faculty of Civil Engineering, Transportation Engineering and Architecture
Publisher:	MDPI AG
UDC:	517.97
COBISS:	32804867
ISSN:	2571-5577
Views:	1096
Downloads:	210
Average score:	0 (0 votes)
Metadata:

Other data

Secondary language:	Slovenian
Secondary keywords:	razvoj pandemije COVID-19;časovno odvisen model SIR;koronavirus;
Type (COBISS):	Scientific work
Pages:	str. 1-21
Volume:	ǂVol. ǂ3
Issue:	ǂiss. ǂ4
Chronology:	Oct. 2020
DOI:	10.3390/asi3040044
ID:	12306954