Comparison of the evolution of the COVID-19 disease between Romania and Italy

Ciprian Chiruţa (Avtor), Emilian Bulgariu (Avtor), Jurij Avsec (Avtor), Brigita Ferčec (Avtor), Matej Mencinger (Avtor)

Povzetek

After the outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy, thousands of Romanian citizens who worked in Northern Italy, Spain or Germany returned to Romania. Based on the time-dependent susceptible–infected–recovered—SIR model, this paper compares the evolution of the COVID-19 disease between Romania and Italy, assuming that the parameter value of R0 in the time-dependent SIR model decreases to R1 < R0 after publicly announced restrictions by the government, and increases to a value of R2 < R1 when the restrictions are lifted. Among other things, we answer the questions about the date and extent of the second peak in Italy and Romania with respect to different values of R2 and the duration of the restrictions.

Ključne besede

razvoj pandemije COVID-19;časovno odvisen model SIR;COVID-19 pandemic evolution;time dependent SIR model;

Podatki

Jezik:	Angleški jezik
Leto izida:	2020
Tipologija:	1.01 - Izvirni znanstveni članek
Organizacija:	UM FGPA - Fakulteta za gradbeništvo, prometno inženirstvo in arhitekturo
UDK:	517.97
COBISS:	32804867
ISSN:	2571-5577
Št. ogledov:	501
Št. prenosov:	116
Ocena:	0 (0 glasov)
Metapodatki:

Ostali podatki

Sekundarni jezik:	Slovenski jezik
Sekundarne ključne besede:	razvoj pandemije COVID-19;časovno odvisen model SIR;koronavirus;
Vrsta dela (COBISS):	Znanstveno delo
Strani:	str. 1-21
Letnik:	ǂVol. ǂ3
Zvezek:	ǂiss. ǂ4
Čas izdaje:	Oct. 2020
DOI:	10.3390/asi3040044
ID:	12306954