Panos Panagos (Author), Pasquale Borrelli (Author), Francis Matthews (Author), Leonidas Liakos (Author), Nejc Bezak (Author), Nazzareno Diodato (Author), Cristiano Ballabio (Author)

Abstract

The erosive force of rainfall (rainfall erosivity) is a major driver of soil, nutrient losses worldwide and an important input for soil erosion assessments models. Here, we present a comprehensive set of future erosivity projections at a 30 arc-second (~1km2) spatial scale using 19 downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) simulating three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for the periods 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. The future rainfall erosivity projections were obtained based on a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) approach relating rainfall depth to rainfall erosivity through a series of (bio)climatic covariates. Compared to the 2010 Global Rainfall erosivity baseline, we estimate a potential average increase in global rainfall erosivity between 26.2-28.8% for 2050 and 27-34.3% for 2070. Therefore, climate change and the consequential increase in rainfall erosivity is the main driver of the projected +30-66% increase in soil erosion rates by 2070.

Keywords

podnebne spremembe;kmetijstvo;tla;spremembe rabe tal;R-faktor;varnost hrane;climate change;agriculture;soil health;land use change;R-factor;food security;

Data

Language: English
Year of publishing:
Typology: 1.01 - Original Scientific Article
Organization: UL FGG - Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering
UDC: 502/504:556
COBISS: 106880515 Link will open in a new window
ISSN: 0022-1694
Views: 9
Downloads: 6
Average score: 0 (0 votes)
Metadata: JSON JSON-RDF JSON-LD TURTLE N-TRIPLES XML RDFA MICRODATA DC-XML DC-RDF RDF

Other data

Secondary language: Slovenian
Secondary keywords: podnebne spremembe;kmetijstvo;tla;spremembe rabe tal;R-faktor;varnost hrane;
Type (COBISS): Article
Pages: [43] str.
Issue: ǂLetn. ǂ
Chronology: 2022
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127865
ID: 15504052