Hevristični model razvoja proizvodnih zmogljivosti

Zvonko Kremljak (Author), Andrej Polajnar (Author), Borut Buchmeister (Author)

Abstract

Menedzerji v proizvodnih okoljih se pri odločanju srečujejo z visoko stopnjo nezanesljivosti, zaradi hitrih in velikih sprememb, ki opredeljujejo okolja, vkaterih delujejo njihove organizacije. Ta pomeni, da menedzerji pri odločanju nimajo popolnih informacij o prihodnjih dogodkih, ne poznajo vseh mogočih alternativ in ne poznajo posledic vseh mogočih odločitev. Spoprijeti se z negotovostjo pomeni razvijati hevristična orodja, ki lahko ponudijo zadovoljive resitve, ne pa tudi optimalne. Metode simulacij, ki temeljijo na ekstrapoliranju merljivih podatkov iz preteklosti, niso ustrezne kot pomoč pri odločitvah v okoliščinah negotovosti. V zadnjem času se kot prevladujoča hevristika za reševanje odločitvenih problemov pri visoki stopnji negotovosti pojavlja teorija stvarnih moznosti. Zato se postopki stvarnih možnosti danes uporabljajo za vrednotenje investicij v raziskave in razvoj, v razvoj novih izdelkov, v proizvodno tehnologijo in preostale proizvodne vire. Na inženirskem področju smo priča intenzivnemu razvoju metod, orodij in tehnik, ki sicer po svojem poreklu spadajo na področje uporabne matematike, informacijskih znanosti, operacijskih raziskav in ekonomske teorije (genetski algoritmi, evolucijsko programiranje, genetsko programiranje, mehka logika, nevronske mreže, teorija stvarnih možnosti itn.), se pa zelo uspešno uporabljajo pri reševanju različnih tehničnih optimizacijskih problemov. Teorija stvarnih moznosti se uporablja tudi pri obravnavanju tehnologije, razvoja in raziskav ter proizvodnje. Razmišljanja o uporabnosti teorije stvarnih možnosti so se razširila tudi na področje strateškega menedžmenta.

Keywords

hevristične metode;mehka logika;modeliranje negotovosti;proizvodni sistemi;sistemi proizvodni;teorija stvarnih možnosti;upravljanje;upravljanje tveganja

Data

Language:	Slovenian
Year of publishing:	2005
Typology:	1.01 - Original Scientific Article
Organization:	UM FS - Faculty of Mechanical Engineering
Publisher:	Association of Mechanical Engineers and Technicians of Slovenia et al.
UDC:	658.5:657.478.8
COBISS:	8659739
ISSN:	0039-2480
Parent publication:	Strojniški vestnik
Views:	527
Downloads:	46
Average score:	0 (0 votes)
Metadata:

Other data

Secondary language:	English
Secondary title:	ǂA ǂheuristic model for the development of production capabilities
Secondary abstract:	Managers in production environments face a high level of uncertainty in their decision making due to the major, rapidly developing changes defining the environments in which their organisations operate. This means that managers donot possess complete information about future events, do not know all the possible alternatives or the consequences of all their possible decisions. Overcoming this uncertainty requires the development of heuristic tools, whichcan offer satisfactory, if not optimal, solutions. Simulation methods based on the extrapolation of available data from the past are unsuitable for help in decision-making processes in uncertain conditions. Lately, the dominant heuristics used for solving decision-making problems during a high level of uncertainty is the theory of real options. For this reason the real-options approach is currently used for an evaluation of the investments in research and development, the development of new products, production technologies and other production sources. As regards engineering, we are witnessing the intensive development of new methods, tools and techniques, which by their origin belong to the field of applied mathematics, information sciences, operational research and economic theory (genetic algorithms, evolution programming, genetic programming, soft logic, neuron networks, the theory of real options, etc.), and are very successfully applied in the solving of various technical optimisation problems. The theory of real optionsis also used in issues related to technology, research and development,and production. The thoughts on the use of the theory of real options have also spread to the area of strategic management.
Secondary keywords:	production systems;risk management;real option theory;uncertainty modelling;fuzzy logic;sistemi proizvodni;upravljanje tveganja;teorija stvarnih možnosti;modeliranje negotovosti;mehka logika;
URN:	URN:NBN:SI
Type (COBISS):	Not categorized
Pages:	str. 674-691
Volume:	ǂLetn. ǂ51
Issue:	ǂšt. ǂ11
Chronology:	2005
ID:	1743418