magistrsko delo št.: 113/II. VOI
Manca Alič (Author), Mojca Šraj (Mentor), Mira Kobold (Co-mentor)

Abstract

Nobenega dvoma ni več, da se podnebje spreminja in da se bo verjetno tudi v prihodnosti. To med drugim povzroča vrsto sprememb v podnebnih spremenljivkah. Za boljše razumevanje vpliva podnebnih sprememb se danes uporablja podnebne projekcije, ki nam omogočijo oceno stanja podnebja v prihodnosti glede na pričakovane koncentracije toplogrednih plinov v ozračju. V magistrski nalogi smo se osredotočili na oceno trendov srednjih, velikih in malih letnih pretokov na 52 vodomernih postajah v Sloveniji. Pri tem smo uporabil metodo Mann-Kendall z izbrano stopnjo zaupanja α = 0,05. Vhodni podatki za analize so bili modelski pretoki, ki so produkt dveh podnebnih modelov za scenarij izpustov RCP2.6 oz. šestih podnebnih modelov za scenarija izpustov RCP4.5 in RCP8.5 za obdobje 2011–2100. Podnebni modeli so bili na Agenciji Republike Slovenije za okolje izbrani s ciljem prikaza čim širšega razpona možnih sprememb podnebja v prihodnosti. Trende pretokov smo ovrednotili kot statistično značilne ali statistično neznačilne pozitivne oz. negativne trende. Rezultati so pokazali, da delež statistično značilnih trendov narašča od RCP2.6 proti RCP8.5. Modeli za statistike pretoka podajajo raznolike trende in ne omogočajo enotnih zaključkov. Ocenili smo tudi magnitude trendov s pomočjo metode Senovega naklona. Rezultati nakazujejo na največje spremembe za velike pretoke in najmanjše za male pretoke. Pri tem pri vseh statistikah pretoka spremembe naraščajo od RCP2.6 proti RCP8.5. Rezultati nakazujejo, da nekaj sprememb v pretokih lahko pričakujemo, še posebej pri scenariju RCP4.5 in RCP8.5. Pri tem je pomembno, da se zavedamo, da podnebne projekcije vsebujejo negotovosti, ki izvirajo iz negotovosti scenarijev izpustov, vhodnih podatkov in naravne spremenljivosti podnebja. Slednje je za Slovenijo še posebej pomembno, saj se pretoki rek konstantno spreminjajo, še posebej zaradi spreminjanja vzorcev padavin.

Keywords

gradbeništvo;magistrska dela;VOI;modelski pretoki;trendi;podnebne spremembe;podnebne projekcije;test Mann-Kendall;Senov naklon;

Data

Language: Slovenian
Year of publishing:
Typology: 2.09 - Master's Thesis
Organization: UL FGG - Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering
Publisher: [M. Alič]
UDC: 551.583.1:556.5(282)(497.4)(043.3)
COBISS: 178365187 Link will open in a new window
Views: 163
Downloads: 38
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Other data

Secondary language: English
Secondary title: River flow trends in Slovenia by the end of the 21st century
Secondary abstract: There is no doubt that the climate nowadays is changing and will most likely continue to change in the future. These changes, along with other negative impacts, cause alterations in many climate variables. For a better understanding of climate change, climate projections are in use, which enable us to assess the future climate based on the expected levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In this master's thesis, we focused on the estimation of trends in mean, high, and low annual flows at 52 gauging stations in Slovenia. For trend detection, we applied the Mann-Kendall test with a chosen significance level of α = 0,05. The input data for analysis consisted of projected river flows, which are the product of two or six climate models for the period 2011–2100. The models were selected by the Slovenian environmental agency with the goal of encompassing a wide range of potential flow changes in the future. We evaluated the statistical significance of trends as well as their directions (positive or negative). The proportion of statistically significant trends increased from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5. Mann-Kendall results presented diverse trends, rendering these findings inconclusive. To further assess the magnitude of trends, we used Sen’s slope method. The analysis of Sen’s slope results clearly illustrates that the most significant changes are correlated with high flow indices, while the smallest changes are associated with low flow indices. Across all flow indices, changes increased from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5. The results suggest that certain flow changes can be expected, particularly for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. It is essential to acknowledge that climate projections entail uncertainties stemming from emission scenario uncertainties, input data, and natural climate variability. The latter is particularly relevant for Slovenia, as river flows continuously change, mainly due to fluctuations in precipitation.
Secondary keywords: civil engineering;master thesis;projected river flows;trends;climate change;climate projections;Mann-Kendall test;Sen's slope;
Type (COBISS): Master's thesis/paper
Thesis comment: Univ. v Ljubljani, Fak. za gradbeništvo in geodezijo
Pages: XIV, 74 str., [15] str. pril.
ID: 22313901