diplomsko delo
Maruša Prostor (Avtor), Zalika Črepinšek (Mentor)

Povzetek

Kmetijske dejavnosti večinoma potekajo na prostem in so v veliki meri odvisne od vremena, podnebja in podnebnih sprememb. Glavni kazalnik podnebnih sprememb je temperatura zraka, ki se je v Sloveniji v obdobju 1961–2011 zviševala s trendom 0,36 °C/10 let. Trend višine padavin je bil v istem obdobju negativen v vseh letnih časih, najvišji pa pomladi in poleti, -3 %/10 let. Upada tudi višina snežne odeje, v istem obdobju se je zmanjšala za 20 %. Za oceno podnebnih sprememb in predvidenih posledic do konca 21. stoletja so na Agenciji Republike Slovenije za okolje uporabili scenarije izpustov toplogrednih plinov: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 in RCP8.5. Glede na projekcije naj bi se temperatura zraka do konca leta 2100 zvišala od 1 °C do 4 °C, odvisno od scenarija. V skladu s tem se bo povečala pogostost temperaturnih ekstremov. Z višanjem temperature zraka se bo segreval površinski sloj tal, kjer se bodo najprej pokazale spremembe v vodni bilanci in večji sušnosti, zato bodo povečane potrebe po namakanju. Spremenil se bo čas fenoloških faz in medfazna obdobja se bodo skrajšala. Posledica bodo spremenjene interakcije med fenofazami rastlin, škodljivcev in povzročiteljev rastlinskih bolezni. Podaljšala se bo dolžina rastne dobe, ki se bo spomladi začela prej in jeseni končala pozneje. Daljšanje rastne dobe bo imelo tudi možne pozitivne učinke. Povečalo pa se bo število škodljivcev in bolezni, saj jim bodo višje temperature omogočale ugodnejše življenjske razmere. Povprečna letna količina padavin bo narasla za 10 %. Na večino posledic podnebnih sprememb se v kmetijstvu lahko deloma prilagodimo, vendar bo v bodoče potrebno še bolj intenzivno osveščati o podnebnih spremembah, posledicah za kmetijstvo ter možnostih pravočasnega ukrepanja.

Ključne besede

podnebne spremembe;kmetijstvo;napovedi;

Podatki

Jezik: Slovenski jezik
Leto izida:
Tipologija: 2.11 - Diplomsko delo
Organizacija: UL BF - Biotehniška fakulteta
Založnik: [M. Prostor]
UDK: 551.583:63(043.2)
COBISS: 76529923 Povezava se bo odprla v novem oknu
Št. ogledov: 183
Št. prenosov: 39
Ocena: 0 (0 glasov)
Metapodatki: JSON JSON-RDF JSON-LD TURTLE N-TRIPLES XML RDFA MICRODATA DC-XML DC-RDF RDF

Ostali podatki

Sekundarni jezik: Angleški jezik
Sekundarni naslov: Projected climate change in Slovenia by the end of the 21st century and its impact on agriculture
Sekundarni povzetek: Since the agricultural activities are mostly carried out outside, they depend to a large extent on the weather, climate and climate change. Air temperature, as the main indicator of climate change, increased with a trend of 0.36 °C/10 years in the period from 1961 to 2011 in Slovenia. The trend of precipitation amount in the same period was negative in all seasons, the highest being in spring and summer (-3%/10 years). A decrease is also noted in the snow cover depth, which decreased by 20% in the previously mentioned period. The Slovenian Environment Agency used the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, three of them being RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for climate change projections and the anticipated consequences by the end of the 21st century. According to the projections, the air temperature is expected to rise from 1 °C to 4 °C by the end of 2100, depending on the scenario. In accordance with that, the frequency of temperature extremes will increase. With the increase of air temperature, the surface layer of soil will get warmer, the results of which will be first seen in the changes of water balance and greater aridity, therefore, the need for irrigation will increase. The occurrence of phenological phases will also be subjected to changes, and the interphase periods will shorten. This will result in the changed interactions between the phenophases of plants, pests and plant pathogens. The length of the growing season will be expanded. The prolongation of the growing season will also have potentially positive impacts. The number of pests and diseases will also be on the rise, as higher temperatures will provide them with more favourable living conditions. The average annual rainfall will increase by 10%. Agriculture can partially adjust to most of the consequences of climate change, but in the future, more intensive awareness-rising about climate change, its impacts on agriculture and the possibilities of timely action will be necessary.
Sekundarne ključne besede: precision farming;climate changes;agriculture;forecasts;
Vrsta dela (COBISS): Diplomsko delo/naloga
Študijski program: 0
Komentar na gradivo: Univ. v Ljubljani, Biotehniška fak., Oddelek za agronomijo
Strani: VI, 21 str.
ID: 13491100