Sekundarni povzetek: |
Since the agricultural activities are mostly carried out outside, they depend to a large extent on the weather, climate and climate change. Air temperature, as the main indicator of climate change, increased with a trend of 0.36 °C/10 years in the period from 1961 to 2011 in Slovenia. The trend of precipitation amount in the same period was negative in all seasons, the highest being in spring and summer (-3%/10 years). A decrease is also noted in the snow cover depth, which decreased by 20% in the previously mentioned period. The Slovenian Environment Agency used the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, three of them being RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for climate change projections and the anticipated consequences by the end of the 21st century. According to the projections, the air temperature is expected to rise from 1 °C to 4 °C by the end of 2100, depending on the scenario. In accordance with that, the frequency of temperature extremes will increase. With the increase of air temperature, the surface layer of soil will get warmer, the results of which will be first seen in the changes of water balance and greater aridity, therefore, the need for irrigation will increase. The occurrence of phenological phases will also be subjected to changes, and the interphase periods will shorten. This will result in the changed interactions between the phenophases of plants, pests and plant pathogens. The length of the growing season will be expanded. The prolongation of the growing season will also have potentially positive impacts. The number of pests and diseases will also be on the rise, as higher temperatures will provide them with more favourable living conditions. The average annual rainfall will increase by 10%. Agriculture can partially adjust to most of the consequences of climate change, but in the future, more intensive awareness-rising about climate change, its impacts on agriculture and the possibilities of timely action will be necessary. |