Forecasting US tourists' inflow to Slovenia by modified holt-winters damped model

ǂa ǂcase in the tourism industry logistics and supply chains

Dejan Dragan (Author), Abolfazl Keshavarzsaleh (Author), Tomaž Kramberger (Author), Borut Jereb (Author), Maja Rosi (Author)

Abstract

Forecasting is important in many branches of logistics, including the logistics related to Tourism supply chains. With an increasing inflow of American tourists, planning and forecasting the US tourists' inflow to Slovenia have gained far more importance attention amongst scholars and practitioners. This study, therefore, was conducted to forecast the American tourists' inflow to Slovenia using one of the predictive models based on the exponential smoothing approach, namely Holt-Winters damped additive (HWDA) exponential smoothing method. The model was modified by several improvements, while the obtained results were generalized to other supply chain components. The results show that the forecasting system can predict well the observed inflow, while the methodology used to derive the model might have enriched the plethora of existing practical forecasting approaches in the tourism domain. Benchmarking demonstrates that the proposed model outperforms a competitive ARIMA model and official forecasts. The practical implications are also discussed in this paper.

Keywords

turizem;napovedovanje;Holt-Wintersov model;ameriški turisti;oskrbovalne verige;logistika;tourism;forecasting;Holt-Winters model;US tourists;supply chains;logistics;

Data

Language:	English
Year of publishing:	2019
Typology:	1.01 - Original Scientific Article
Organization:	UM FL - Faculty of Logistics
UDC:	519.2
COBISS:	513008701
ISSN:	2232-4968
Views:	8
Downloads:	0
Average score:	0 (0 votes)
Metadata:

Other data

Secondary language:	Slovenian
Secondary keywords:	turizem;napovedovanje;Holt-Wintersov model;ameriški turisti;oskrbovalne verige;logistika;
Type (COBISS):	Article
Pages:	str. 11-30
Volume:	ǂVol. ǂ10
Issue:	ǂno. ǂ1
Chronology:	2019
DOI:	10.2478/jlst-2019-0002
ID:	24791850