Vpliv podnebnih sprememb na verjetnost pojava poplav v porečju Save

diplomska naloga

Barbara Legat (Author), Mitja Brilly (Mentor), Janko Logar (Thesis defence commission member), Mojca Šraj (Co-mentor)

Abstract

Keywords

gradbeništvo;diplomska dela;UNI;podnebne spremembe;poplave;pretok;padavine;verjetnostna analiza;

Data

Language:	Slovenian
Year of publishing:	2013
Source:	Ljubljana
Typology:	2.11 - Undergraduate Thesis
Organization:	UL FGG - Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering
Publisher:	[B. Legat]
UDC:	551.583:556.166(043.2)
COBISS:	6350689
Views:	1938
Downloads:	466
Average score:	0 (0 votes)
Metadata:

Other data

Secondary language:	English
Secondary title:	Impact of climate change on the probability of occurrence of floods in Sava river basin in Slovenia
Secondary abstract:	Climate has been changing throughout entire history and climatologists also predict future changes. These changes have a great influence on air temperature, precipitation and consequently on discarges of our rivers, especially Sava. Its basin covers over a half of Slovenia’s national grounds. Various models and probability analysis to predict flooding are available nowadays. In this assignment we applied probability analysis with the method of yearly maximums. Certain hydrometric stations at the middle section of Sava were assigned with climatological stations, gathered information about maximal annual rate of discharge and maximum daily precipitation for the period from 58 to 62 years and we calculated correlation coefficients and regression lines. Using these results and estimated future discharges, we have calculated rates of discharge for specific future periods. It is established that lower rates of discharge will continue to fall and maximum values will increase. On that basis we can state that return periods for extreme rates of discharge will lower.
Secondary keywords:	graduation thesis;civil engineering;climate change;floods;discharge;precipitation;probability analsys;
File type:	application/pdf
Type (COBISS):	Bachelor thesis/paper
Thesis comment:	Univ. v Ljubljani, Fak. za gradbeništvo in geodezijo
Pages:	XII, 40 str., 2 pril.
Type (ePrints):	thesis
Title (ePrints):	Impact of climate change on the probability of occurrence of floods in Sava river basin in Slovenia
Keywords (ePrints):	podnebne spremembe;poplave;pretok;padavine;verjetnostna analiza
Keywords (ePrints, secondary language):	climate change;floods;discharge;precipitation;probability analsys
Abstract (ePrints):	Podnebje se je spreminjalo skozi celotno zgodovino, klimatologi pa napovedujejo spremembe tudi v prihodnosti. Te spremembe imajo velik vpliv na temperaturo zraka, padavine in posledično na pretočnost naših rek, še posebno na reko Savo, katere porečje zaseda več kot polovico našega državnega ozemlja. Zato so dandanes na voljo različni modeli in verjetnostne analize za napovedovanje visokih voda. V okviru diplomske naloge smo uporabili verjetnostno analizo po metodi letnih maksimumov. Določenim vodomernim postajam na srednji Savi smo pripisali ustrezno klimatološko postajo, zbrali podatke o maksimalnih letnih pretokih in maksimalnih dnevnih padavinah za obdobje od 58 do 62 let ter za te podatke izračunali korelacijske koeficiente in regresijske premice. S pomočjo teh rezultatov in ocenjenih podatkov o padavinah v prihodnosti smo preračunali pretoke za posamezna obdobja v prihodnosti. Ugotovili smo, da se bodo nizki pretoki še znižali, povečale pa se bodo ekstremne vrednosti. Na podlagi tega pa lahko sklepamo da se bodo povratne dobe ekstremnih pretokov znižale.
Abstract (ePrints, secondary language):	Climate has been changing throughout entire history and climatologists also predict future changes. These changes have a great influence on air temperature, precipitation and consequently on discarges of our rivers, especially Sava. Its basin covers over a half of Slovenia’s national grounds. Various models and probability analysis to predict flooding are available nowadays. In this assignment we applied probability analysis with the method of yearly maximums. Certain hydrometric stations at the middle section of Sava were assigned with climatological stations, gathered information about maximal annual rate of discharge and maximum daily precipitation for the period from 58 to 62 years and we calculated correlation coefficients and regression lines. Using these results and estimated future discharges, we have calculated rates of discharge for specific future periods. It is established that lower rates of discharge will continue to fall and maximum values will increase. On that basis we can state that return periods for extreme rates of discharge will lower.
Keywords (ePrints, secondary language):	climate change;floods;discharge;precipitation;probability analsys
ID:	8312899