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Povzetek

Ključne besede

Podatki

Jezik:	Slovenski jezik
Leto izida:	2013
Izvor:	Ljubljana
Tipologija:	2.11 - Diplomsko delo
Organizacija:	UL FGG - Fakulteta za gradbeništvo in geodezijo
Založnik:	[B. Legat]
UDK:	551.583:556.166(043.2)
COBISS:	6350689
Št. ogledov:	1938
Št. prenosov:	466
Ocena:	0 (0 glasov)
Metapodatki:

Ostali podatki

Sekundarni jezik:	Angleški jezik
Sekundarni naslov:	Impact of climate change on the probability of occurrence of floods in Sava river basin in Slovenia
Sekundarni povzetek:	Climate has been changing throughout entire history and climatologists also predict future changes. These changes have a great influence on air temperature, precipitation and consequently on discarges of our rivers, especially Sava. Its basin covers over a half of Slovenia’s national grounds. Various models and probability analysis to predict flooding are available nowadays. In this assignment we applied probability analysis with the method of yearly maximums. Certain hydrometric stations at the middle section of Sava were assigned with climatological stations, gathered information about maximal annual rate of discharge and maximum daily precipitation for the period from 58 to 62 years and we calculated correlation coefficients and regression lines. Using these results and estimated future discharges, we have calculated rates of discharge for specific future periods. It is established that lower rates of discharge will continue to fall and maximum values will increase. On that basis we can state that return periods for extreme rates of discharge will lower.
Sekundarne ključne besede:	graduation thesis;civil engineering;climate change;floods;discharge;precipitation;probability analsys;
Vrsta datoteke:	application/pdf
Vrsta dela (COBISS):	Diplomsko delo/naloga
Komentar na gradivo:	Univ. v Ljubljani, Fak. za gradbeništvo in geodezijo
Strani:	XII, 40 str., 2 pril.
Vrsta dela (ePrints):	thesis
Naslov (ePrints):	Impact of climate change on the probability of occurrence of floods in Sava river basin in Slovenia
Ključne besede (ePrints):	podnebne spremembe;poplave;pretok;padavine;verjetnostna analiza
Ključne besede (ePrints, sekundarni jezik):	climate change;floods;discharge;precipitation;probability analsys
Povzetek (ePrints):	Podnebje se je spreminjalo skozi celotno zgodovino, klimatologi pa napovedujejo spremembe tudi v prihodnosti. Te spremembe imajo velik vpliv na temperaturo zraka, padavine in posledično na pretočnost naših rek, še posebno na reko Savo, katere porečje zaseda več kot polovico našega državnega ozemlja. Zato so dandanes na voljo različni modeli in verjetnostne analize za napovedovanje visokih voda. V okviru diplomske naloge smo uporabili verjetnostno analizo po metodi letnih maksimumov. Določenim vodomernim postajam na srednji Savi smo pripisali ustrezno klimatološko postajo, zbrali podatke o maksimalnih letnih pretokih in maksimalnih dnevnih padavinah za obdobje od 58 do 62 let ter za te podatke izračunali korelacijske koeficiente in regresijske premice. S pomočjo teh rezultatov in ocenjenih podatkov o padavinah v prihodnosti smo preračunali pretoke za posamezna obdobja v prihodnosti. Ugotovili smo, da se bodo nizki pretoki še znižali, povečale pa se bodo ekstremne vrednosti. Na podlagi tega pa lahko sklepamo da se bodo povratne dobe ekstremnih pretokov znižale.
Povzetek (ePrints, sekundarni jezik):	Climate has been changing throughout entire history and climatologists also predict future changes. These changes have a great influence on air temperature, precipitation and consequently on discarges of our rivers, especially Sava. Its basin covers over a half of Slovenia’s national grounds. Various models and probability analysis to predict flooding are available nowadays. In this assignment we applied probability analysis with the method of yearly maximums. Certain hydrometric stations at the middle section of Sava were assigned with climatological stations, gathered information about maximal annual rate of discharge and maximum daily precipitation for the period from 58 to 62 years and we calculated correlation coefficients and regression lines. Using these results and estimated future discharges, we have calculated rates of discharge for specific future periods. It is established that lower rates of discharge will continue to fall and maximum values will increase. On that basis we can state that return periods for extreme rates of discharge will lower.
Ključne besede (ePrints, sekundarni jezik):	climate change;floods;discharge;precipitation;probability analsys
ID:	8312899