diplomska naloga
Anja Kotar (Author), Mitja Brilly (Mentor), Janko Logar (Thesis defence commission member), Andrej Kryžanowski (Thesis defence commission member), Simon Schnabl (Thesis defence commission member), Andrej Vidmar (Co-mentor)

Abstract

Vpliv podnebnih sprememb na visoke pretoke Vipave

Keywords

gradbeništvo;UNI;površinski odtok;HBV model;PEST;kalibracija;porečje Vipave;vpliv podnebnih sprememb;

Data

Language: Slovenian
Year of publishing:
Source: Ljubljana
Typology: 2.11 - Undergraduate Thesis
Organization: UL FGG - Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering
Publisher: [A. Kotar]
UDC: 556.16(497.4)(043.2)
COBISS: 6450273 Link will open in a new window
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Downloads: 534
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Other data

Secondary language: English
Secondary title: Climate change impact on high flows of Vipava river
Secondary abstract: Due to climate change in Slovenia we expect greater autumn rainfall in the future which will consequently lead to higher flood peaks. Runoff from catchments can be simulated with hydrological models. Important phases of hydrological modeling are calibration and validation. If performed properly, the model can be used to simulate runoff under changed circumstances. In the graduation thesis a model of the Vipava river basin was used to evaluate the climate change impact on high flows in the lower reach of Vipava river. The theoretical part of thesis contains a description of HBV-light, a conceptual hydrological model for continuous calculation of runoff. HBV-light can be coupled with parameter estimation program PEST, which can be used for automatic calibration of many types of models. The workings and mathematical foundation of PEST are also presented. In the practical part we implemented the HBV-light model on the Vipava river basin, which was divided into seven subbasins. The basic model had a daily time step and the calibration was carried out automatically by PEST parameter estimation routine using the data between years 2005 and 2008. The basic model was transformed into a model with an hourly time step but it was re-calibrated due to poor performance in October 2012. Two of the constructed models were used to simulate the climate change impact on the runoff. We have taken into account the increased amounts of autumn rainfall with 20- and 100-years return period which are predicted for three periods: 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100. Along with today’s situation we simulated 8 scenarios and analyze the increase of the maximum simulated flow at the outlet of the Vipava basin. We also determined the increase of the discharge with 100-year return period according to the probabilistic analysis.
Secondary keywords: graduation thesis;civil engineering;Runoff;HBV model;PEST;calibration;Vipava river basin;climate change impact;
File type: application/pdf
Type (COBISS): Undergraduate thesis
Thesis comment: Univ. v Ljubljani, Fak. za gradbeništvo in geodezijo
Pages: XI, 75 str., 3 pril.
Type (ePrints): thesis
Title (ePrints): Climate change impact on high flows of Vipava river
Keywords (ePrints): površinski odtok;HBV model;PEST;kalibracija;porečje Vipave;vpliv podnebnih sprememb
Keywords (ePrints, secondary language): Runoff;HBV model;PEST;calibration;Vipava river basin;climate change impact
Abstract (ePrints): V Sloveniji zaradi podnebnih sprememb v prihodnosti pričakujemo večje količine padavin v jesenskem času in posledično večji površinski odtok oziroma višje poplavne konice. Primerno orodje za simulacijo površinskega odtoka s povodij so hidrološki modeli. Pomembni fazi hidrološkega modeliranja sta kalibracija in validacija, če sta ustrezno izvedeni, lahko model uporabimo za simulacijo odtoka pri spremenjenih razmerah. V okviru diplomske naloge smo izdelali model porečja Vipave ter ovrednotili vpliv podnebnih sprememb na visoke pretoke v spodnjem toku reke. V teoretičnem delu diplomske naloge je opisan konceptualni model za računanje površinskega odtoka HBV-light, njegovi parametri ter računski postopki, na katerih temelji. Podrobneje je opisano tudi delovanje programa za ocenjevanje parametrov PEST, ki se uporablja za avtomatizirano kalibracijo veliko vrst modelov. V praktičnem delu smo model HBV-light implementirali na porečje reke Vipave, katerega smo razdelili na 7 podpovodij. Osnovni model je imel dnevni časovni korak, kalibracija pa je bila izvedena avtomatizirano s programom PEST na podlagi podatkov med leti 2005 in 2008. Osnovni model je bil preoblikovan v model z urnim časovnim korakom, ki pa je bil zaradi slabe simulacije pretokov v oktobru 2012 ponovno umerjen. Dva izmed izdelanih modelov smo uporabili za simulacijo vpliva podnebnih sprememb, ki smo jih upoštevali v obliki povečane količine padavin v jesenskem času. Obravnavali smo padavine z 20- in 100-letno povratno dobo, ki so napovedane za obdobja med leti 2011–2040, 2041–2070 ter 2071–2100. Skupaj z današnjim stanjem smo tako simulirali 8 scenarijev in analizirali povečanje maksimalnih simuliranih pretokov na iztoku iz porečja Vipave. S pomočjo verjetnostne analize smo določili tudi povečanje pretokov s 100-letno povratno dobo.
Abstract (ePrints, secondary language): Due to climate change in Slovenia we expect greater autumn rainfall in the future which will consequently lead to higher flood peaks. Runoff from catchments can be simulated with hydrological models. Important phases of hydrological modeling are calibration and validation. If performed properly, the model can be used to simulate runoff under changed circumstances. In the graduation thesis a model of the Vipava river basin was used to evaluate the climate change impact on high flows in the lower reach of Vipava river. The theoretical part of thesis contains a description of HBV-light, a conceptual hydrological model for continuous calculation of runoff. HBV-light can be coupled with parameter estimation program PEST, which can be used for automatic calibration of many types of models. The workings and mathematical foundation of PEST are also presented. In the practical part we implemented the HBV-light model on the Vipava river basin, which was divided into seven subbasins. The basic model had a daily time step and the calibration was carried out automatically by PEST parameter estimation routine using the data between years 2005 and 2008. The basic model was transformed into a model with an hourly time step but it was re-calibrated due to poor performance in October 2012. Two of the constructed models were used to simulate the climate change impact on the runoff. We have taken into account the increased amounts of autumn rainfall with 20- and 100-years return period which are predicted for three periods: 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100. Along with today’s situation we simulated 8 scenarios and analyze the increase of the maximum simulated flow at the outlet of the Vipava basin. We also determined the increase of the discharge with 100-year return period according to the probabilistic analysis.
Keywords (ePrints, secondary language): Runoff;HBV model;PEST;calibration;Vipava river basin;climate change impact
ID: 8313093