Vrednotenje ustreznosti enovitih hidroloških modelov za primer porečja Save

magistrsko delo

Katarina Lavtar (Avtor), Mojca Šraj (Mentor), Nejc Bezak (Komentor)

Povzetek

Z enovitimi hidrološkimi modeli lahko poustvarimo padavinski odtok na nivoju celotnega porečja in z njimi predstavimo bistvo hidroloških procesov obravnavanega prispevnega območja. Predstavljajo le eno izmed možnosti izbire med različnimi vrstami hidroloških modelov, ki jih v praksi uporabljamo za upravljanje z vodnimi viri, načrtovanje in uporabo vodnogospodarskih objektov, izdelavo poplavnih kart ter prognostičnih sistemov ipd. V sklopu magistrskega dela smo uporabili enovit hidrološki model, ki je vključen v paket airGR in preverili njegovo uporabnost in uspešnost modeliranja odtoka z različno velikih prispevnih površin Save, ki smo jih omejili z izbranimi vodomernimi postajami. Uporabili in prikazali smo različne možnosti, ki jih paket ponuja in jih testirali na obravnavanih prispevnih površinah ter ovrednotili uspešnost različic s kriteriji, ki se uporabljajo predvsem v hidrologiji na podlagi razmerja med meritvami in modeliranimi vrednostmi. Analizirali smo tudi odnos med dolžino obdobja umerjanja in validacije v povezavi z uspešnostjo. Z dodatnimi analizami smo uspešnost modela povezali tudi z nehomogenostjo prispevnih površin. Rezultati študije so pokazali, da so modeli v povprečju dosegali boljše rezultate na večjih prispevnih površinah in pri uporabi večjega števila parametrov. Slednje še posebej velja za primer porečja s snežnodežnim režimom, kjer se je uspešnost modelskega izračuna precej izboljšala ob upoštevanju parametrov za simulacijo nalaganja in taljenja snega. Analiza vpliva nehomogenosti na uspešnost modelske napovedi je pokazala boljšo uspešnost modelov prispevnih površin z večjim deležem visokega odtočnega potenciala in z manjšim nihanjem vrednosti meteoroloških spremenljivk.

Ključne besede

gradbeništvo;magistrska dela;VOI;hidrološko modeliranje;padavinski odtok;enoviti konceptualni modeli;kriteriji uspešnosti modelov;airGR;nehomogenost porečij;

Podatki

Jezik:	Slovenski jezik
Leto izida:	2019
Tipologija:	2.09 - Magistrsko delo
Organizacija:	UL FGG - Fakulteta za gradbeništvo in geodezijo
Založnik:	K. Lavtar]
UDK:	004.42:556.16:556.51(043.2)
COBISS:	8892513
Št. ogledov:	799
Št. prenosov:	294
Ocena:	0 (0 glasov)
Metapodatki:

Ostali podatki

Sekundarni jezik:	Angleški jezik
Sekundarni naslov:	Evaluation of lumped hydrological models performance for the Sava River basin
Sekundarni povzetek:	Lumped hydrological models can represent rainfall-runoff processes at the level of the entire basin and thus reproduce different hydrological processes. They present one of the options available for rainfallrunoff modeling. They can be used for water resources management, water system design, real time forecasting and flood design. As a part of the master thesis we applied the lumped conceptual hydrological model incorporated in the airGR package and tested its usefulness and the performance on various catchments that are part of the Sava basin, which were selected based on the discharge data availability. We used various model options included in the airGR package, that have different number of model parameters. These models were evaluated using different model performance criteria that are mainly used in hydrology and compare modelled and measured discharge. We have also demonstrated how the length of the time series used for calibration and validation impacts on model performance. With GIS tools we performed analysis of the nonhomogeneous catchment properties on the model performance. On average, the results indicated that the models performed better on larger basins and when using more parameters rather than less. The later was especially evident in case of the snow dominated basin, where the performance of the model was improved when taking into account snow module included in the airGR package. In the analysis of nonhomogeneity better model performance was obtained for basins with a higher proportion of high runoff potential and with smaller variations in meteorological variables.Lumped hydrological models can represent rainfall-runoff processes at the level of the entire basin and thus reproduce different hydrological processes. They present one of the options available for rainfallrunoff modeling. They can be used for water resources management, water system design, real time forecasting and flood design. As a part of the master thesis we applied the lumped conceptual hydrological model incorporated in the airGR package and tested its usefulness and the performance on various catchments that are part of the Sava basin, which were selected based on the discharge data availability. We used various model options included in the airGR package, that have different number of model parameters. These models were evaluated using different model performance criteria that are mainly used in hydrology and compare modelled and measured discharge. We have also demonstrated how the length of the time series used for calibration and validation impacts on model performance. With GIS tools we performed analysis of the nonhomogeneous catchment properties on the model performance. On average, the results indicated that the models performed better on larger basins and when using more parameters rather than less. The later was especially evident in case of the snow dominated basin, where the performance of the model was improved when taking into account snow module included in the airGR package. In the analysis of nonhomogeneity better model performance was obtained for basins with a higher proportion of high runoff potential and with smaller variations in meteorological variables.
Sekundarne ključne besede:	civil engineering;master thesis;hydrological modeling;rainfall-runoff;lumped conceptual models;model efficiency criteria;airGR;nonhomogeneous basins;
Vrsta dela (COBISS):	Magistrsko delo/naloga
Študijski program:	0
Konec prepovedi (OpenAIRE):	1970-01-01
Komentar na gradivo:	Univ. v Ljubljani, Fak. za gradbeništvo in geodezijo
Strani:	XVI, 87 str.
ID:	11223608