Tehnična analiza delnic

magistrsko delo

Iztok Zgaga (Avtor), Timotej Jagrič (Mentor), Alenka Kavkler (Komentor)

Povzetek

V magistrskem delu smo preučevali tehnično analizo. Glavni namen je ugotoviti, ali je donosnost v povprečju višja, če aktivno trgujemo z uporabo tehničnih indikatorjev v primerjavi s strategijo buy and hold. V magistrskem delu se bomo omejili predvsem na zelo razvite finančne instrumente s tako imenovanih razvitih kapitalskih trgov, ki imajo visoko likvidnost, kot so delnice Apple Inc., Amazon.com, General Motors Company, Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft in Allianz SE. Časovno obdobje od leta 2010 do 2018 bo relativen pokazatelj smiselnosti uporabe instrumentov tehnične analize. Omejili se bomo na uporabo treh indikatorjev tehnične analize, in sicer: RSI, MACD, stohastični oscilator. Portfelj trgovanja bo omejen na 10.000 EUR oz. 10.000 USD. Po opisu tehnične analize smo naredili še izračune, in sicer smo za vsako delnico izračunali vsak indikator in jih primerjali med seboj. Primerjali smo jih tudi s strategijo buy and hold. Pri rezultatih modela smo ovrgli hipotezo H1, saj je strategija buy and hold bila v povprečju donosnejša od katerega koli preučevanega indikatorja. Strategija buy and hold je bila najdonosnejša in zato modra odločitev. MACD in RSI sta bila dokaj dobra pokazatelja. Če bi upoštevali vse teoretično znanje, predvsem trende in vzorce, bi s tema dvema indikatorjema lahko zaslužili več. Najslabši indikator pa je stohastični, saj nam je vedno prinesel izgubo. Glavni razlog so provizije, saj se je s tem indikatorjem največ trgovalo in so zato bile provizije zelo velike.

Ključne besede

finančni instrumenti;vrednostni papirji;delnice;donos;tehnična analiza;

Podatki

Jezik:	Slovenski jezik
Leto izida:	2019
Tipologija:	2.09 - Magistrsko delo
Organizacija:	UM EPF - Ekonomsko-poslovna fakulteta
Založnik:	[I. Zgaga]
UDK:	336.763.2
COBISS:	13553948
Št. ogledov:	1114
Št. prenosov:	200
Ocena:	0 (0 glasov)
Metapodatki:

Ostali podatki

Sekundarni jezik:	Angleški jezik
Sekundarni naslov:	Technical analysis of stocks
Sekundarni povzetek:	In the master's thesis we studied technical analysis. The main purpose is to determinate if the profitability is higher, when we trade actively in using technical indicators compared with the buy and hold strategy. In the master's thesis, we have studied so-called high-liquid capital markets on the limit of Apple Inc., Amazon.com, General Motors Company, Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft in Allianz SE. The period from 2010 to 2018 will demonstrate the purpose of using technical analysis instruments. We have limited on three different indicators of technical analysis in RSI, MACD, Stohastic, as well trade portfolio will be limited to EUR 10,000 or. $ 10,000. After the description of technical analyses, we have also made calculations of indicators for every single share and compare them with each other, we also compared them with the buy and hold strategy. The H1 hypothesis was refuted in the model results because the buy and hold strategy was, on average, more profitable than any of the indicators studied. The buy and hold strategy were the most profitable and wise decision. MACD and RSI were pretty good indicators, considering all the theoretical knowledge, especially trends and patterns, we could earn more with these two indicators. The worst indicator, however, is Stochastic, as it has always brought us loss. The main reason are commissions, as this indicator was most traded and therefore commissions were very high.
Sekundarne ključne besede:	Gaps;Support;Resistance;Chart Patterns;RSI;MACD;Stochastic.;
Vrsta dela (COBISS):	Magistrsko delo/naloga
Komentar na gradivo:	Univ. v Mariboru, Ekonomsko-poslovna fak.
Strani:	IV, 75 str.
ID:	11278927