Partial Equilibrium modeling approach
David Kranjac (Avtor), Krunoslav Zmaić (Avtor), Tihana Sudarić (Avtor), Marija Ravlić (Avtor), Magdalena Zrakić Sušac (Avtor), Ivo Grgić (Avtor), Ilona Rac (Avtor), Emil Erjavec (Avtor)

Povzetek

The latest Common Agricultural Policy reform intends to expand and strengthen environmental and social support and to liberalise the delivery model carried out through strategic planning. This paper aims to assess the potential impacts of the new CAP reform on the main agricultural markets in Croatia. The impact assessment is analysed using the AGMEMOD model where, in addition to the baseline scenario, three scenarios of potential changes are developed and compared to the baseline. Changes in market patterns (production, yield and net trade) at the end of the simulated period are compared with the baseline scenario results by 2030. The reduction in support levels to production, abolishment of voluntary coupled supports and introduction of additional environmental constraints have a significant impact on the main Croatian agricultural markets. Crop markets prov to be less dependent on subsidies, so that market pattern changes will not mean the loss of Croatia’s net export status for soft wheat, maize and soy beans, while barley no longer holds this status. Livestock sectors, especially beef and dairy, in addition to demonstrating a distinct lack of competitiveness even before the Croatian accession to the EU, additionally suffer significant production volume losses along with an increase in imports. Although significant, changes to the Croatian agricultural market are not dramatic enough to cause a complete production breakdown by 2030.

Ključne besede

kmetijstvo;skupna kmetijska politika;CAP;reforme;kmetijski trgi;modeli;AGMEMOD;Hrvaška;

Podatki

Jezik: Angleški jezik
Leto izida:
Tipologija: 1.01 - Izvirni znanstveni članek
Organizacija: UL BF - Biotehniška fakulteta
UDK: 631
COBISS: 89101059 Povezava se bo odprla v novem oknu
ISSN: 2073-4395
Št. ogledov: 128
Št. prenosov: 42
Ocena: 0 (0 glasov)
Metapodatki: JSON JSON-RDF JSON-LD TURTLE N-TRIPLES XML RDFA MICRODATA DC-XML DC-RDF RDF

Ostali podatki

Sekundarni jezik: Slovenski jezik
Sekundarne ključne besede: kmetijstvo;skupna kmetijska politika;CAP;reforme;kmetijski trgi;modeli;AGMEMOD;Hrvaška;
Vrsta dela (COBISS): Članek v reviji
Strani: str. 1-19
Letnik: ǂVol. ǂ11
Zvezek: ǂno. ǂ12
Čas izdaje: 2021
DOI: 10.3390/agronomy11122518
ID: 14696224
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