doctoral dissertation
Andreja Nemet (Avtor), Zdravko Kravanja (Mentor), Jiri Klemeš (Komentor)

Povzetek

Ekonomično upravičeni načrti morajo biti, poleg ostalih kriterijev, tudi dobičkonosni skozi celotno življenjsko dobo procesa, ne samo v sedanjem času. Z vzpostavitvijo primernega trženja med prihodki produkta, stroški surovin, obratovalnimi stroški in investicijo v celotni življenski dobi lahko dosegamo izboljšan načrt procesa. Zato je optimizacija za celotno življenjsko dobo procesa z upoštevanjem napovedanih cen primernejša od optimizacije na letni osnovi. Enoperiodno optimiranje in sinteza za procese odraža le sedanje cene. Optimalna rešitev, dosežena za eno leto, se lahko znatno razlikuje od rešitve za drugo leto, saj se cene spreminjajo precej hitro. Običajni superstrukturni sintezni pristop z uporabo mešano-celoštevilskega nelinearnega programiranja smo zato nadgradili 1) z upoštevanjem celotne življenjske dobe, kar lahko opišemo z večperiodnim modelom in 2) z območjem spreminjanja negotovih prihodnjih cen. Namesto običajnega determinističnega pristopa pri nominalnih projekcijah prihodnjih cen smo uporabili stohastični pristop z upoštevanjem statistične porazdelitve napovedovanja cen za celotno življenjsko dobo. Namen je bil maksimiranje pričakovane neto sedanje vrednosti procesa oz. pričakovane inkrementalne neto sedanje vrednosti izboljšave različnih procesnih podsistemov. Podsistem, ki znatno prispeva k obratovalnim stroškom zaradi prihrankov pri porabi zunanjih pogonskih sredstev, je omrežje toplotnih prenosnikov. Za sintezo tega podsistema smo razvili tako deterministični kot stohastični večperiodni celoštevilski nelinearni programirni (MINLP) model ob upoštevanju prihodnjih cenovnih projekcij. Z upoštevanjem višjih cen energentov se povečajo začetne investicije v primerjavi z rešitvami, ki jim dosežemo pri sedanjih cenah. Zaradi negotovosti napovedovanja cen se je smiselno povečanju začetne investicije izogniti z načrtovanjem možnosti razširitve omrežja toplotnih prenosnikov v kasnejšem obdobju. Namen je doseči načrt, ki je kar najbolj primeren za učinkovito razširitev v prihodnosti, po možnosti z najmanjšo občutljivostjo na spreminjanje cen. Toplotna integracija med različnimi procesi lahko tudi znatno vpliva na trženje med investicijo in obratovalnimi stroški. Tako je bil eden od ciljev sinteze omrežja toplotnih prenosnikov prav upoštevanje prihodnjih cen pogonskih sredstev. Razvili smo dve strategiji za sintezo celotnega območja (ang. Total Site), in sicer: i) zaporedno, pri kateri toplotno integracijo izvajamo najprej na nivoju procesa in potem na nivoju celotnega območja, in ii) sočasno, pri kateri izvajamo toplotno integracijo na nivoju procesa in na nivoju celotnega območja hkrati. Slednja strategija omogoča dodatne možnosti prihranka toplote, kar potrjuje primerjava rezultatov doseženih pri sedanjih in prihodnjih cenah pogonskih sredstev. Separacijski procesi so lahko veliki porabniki energije. Sintezo zaporedja destilacijskih kolon integriranih z lastnim omrežjem toplotnih prenosnikov smo uporabili kot študijski primer za ločevanje večkomponentnega toka v čiste produkte. Analizo smo izvedli tudi z namenom določitve obsega vpliva napovedanih prihodnjih cen pogonskih sredstev. Zaključimo lahko, da z upoštevanjem napovedanih cen lahko dosegamo ekonomsko učinkovitejše procese ali procesne podsisteme, vendar je pri tem potrebno skrbno upoštevati tehnološke omejitve študiranega sistema. Nihanje cen razen pri pogonskih lahko opazimo tudi pri drugih cenah, npr. pri cenah surovin, in produktov. Pričakujemo lahko, da trženje v postopku optimiranja poskuša kompenzirati ta nihanja cen, npr. višje cene pogonskih sredstev bodo izravnane s povečanjem investicije, s čemer se zmanjšajo prihodnji obratovalni stroški. Vendar, ko upoštevamo vse stroške in prihodke hkrati, so lahko trendi vplivov različni od posameznega vpliva le teh, kar smo pokazali tudi s študijskim primerom.

Ključne besede

future prices;forecast prices;stochastic optimisation;mathematical programming;Heat Exchanger Network;Total Site;distillation column sequence;methanol production;Nelinearno programiranje;Disertacije;Proizvodnja metanola;

Podatki

Jezik: Angleški jezik
Leto izida:
Tipologija: 2.08 - Doktorska disertacija
Organizacija: UM FKKT - Fakulteta za kemijo in kemijsko tehnologijo
Založnik: [A. Nemet]
UDK: 519.853:547.261(043.3)
COBISS: 18612246 Povezava se bo odprla v novem oknu
Št. ogledov: 1389
Št. prenosov: 115
Ocena: 0 (0 glasov)
Metapodatki: JSON JSON-RDF JSON-LD TURTLE N-TRIPLES XML RDFA MICRODATA DC-XML DC-RDF RDF

Ostali podatki

Sekundarni jezik: Slovenski jezik
Sekundarni naslov: SINTEZA PROCESOV IN PROCESNIH PODSISTEMOV ZA CELOTNO ŽIVLJENJSKO DOBO
Sekundarni povzetek: Economically viable process designs should be, in addition to other criteria, profitable over their entire process lifetimes not only at the present time. An improved process design can be achieved by establishing an appropriate trade-off between product income, raw material, operating costs, and investment. The full lifetime of the processes and future prices have to be considered rather than optimising them on a yearly basis using current prices. Singleperiod optimisation and synthesis models for processes reflects current prices only. The prices can fluctuate rather quickly and the optimal solution may be very different from one year to the another. Therefore, the traditional superstructural synthesis approach applying a mixed-integer nonlinear programming model was upgraded: i) over time, by considering an entire lifetime, which can be described by a multi-period model and ii) the whole field of variation regarding uncertain future prices. A stochastic approach considering the statistical distribution of price projections over an entire lifetime was used on different case studies instead of the traditional deterministic approach accounting for nominal future price projection. The objective was the maximisation of the expected net present value of a process or the expected incremental net present value of different process subsystem. The heat exchanger network has been one of the subsystem, which can significantly contribute to operating costs due to savings of external utility consumption. For this subsystem a deterministic and stochastic multi-period mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) synthesis models have been developed in order to account for future price projections. Considering higher energy prices gives rise to larger initial investments compared to solutions obtained with current prices. However, due to the uncertainties of utility prices' forecasts, retrofitting using an extension of HEN during future years of the lifespan might be a better strategy. The objective is to identify a design that is the most suitable for effective future extensions and preferably with the lowest sensitivity to energy price fluctuations, as there can be various designs featuring similar initial investment. The results supports that it is economically beneficial to consider future utility prices as the incremental investment is not only paid-off but additional savings are achieved. Process-to-process Heat Integration can also significantly affect the trade-off between investment and operating cost. The aim of Total Site (TS) HEN synthesis was to develop a model synthesis for the TS that, besides many other important features, would also consider future utility prices. Two strategies for TS synthesis have been developed: i) sequential, when HI is performed within a process during the first step and then after a process-to-process HI has been performed, and ii) simultaneous, where the HI is performed within and between processes simultaneously. The second strategy can reveal additional opportunities for heat recovery that might not be identified when applying the first strategy. Comparison of the results obtained at consideration of current utility prices and forecasted utility prices indicates that is worth to account for future utility prices. The separation processes also consume a significant amount of energy. The synthesis of a distillation column sequence integrated within its heat exchanger network was used as a case study for the separation of a multi-component stream into pure component products by considering future utility prices. This analysis has been performed in order to evaluate the magnitude of the influence of forecasted utility prices. It can be concluded that forecasted utility prices can be beneficial, however, the technical limits of the systems should be carefully observed. The price fluctuation can also be observed for other prices not only utility prices, e.g. raw material cost, product price, etc. The expected impact on the trade-off would tend to compensate for the cost variations, for example at higher utility costs a higher investment can be economically viable in order to decrease the operating cost. However, when all the costs and incomes are simultaneously considered, the tendencies of each separate impact can be different, which was indicated in the case study presented.
Sekundarne ključne besede: prihodnje cene;napovedane cene;stohastično optimiranje;matematično programiranje;omrežje toplotnih prenosnikov;celotno območje;zaporedje destilacijskih kolon;
URN: URN:SI:UM:
Vrsta dela (COBISS): Doktorska disertacija
Komentar na gradivo: Univ. v Mariboru, Fak. za kemijo in kemijsko tehnologijo
Strani: XXVIII, 142 str.
ID: 8751736