Iztok Lorenčič (Author), Mitja Kaligarič (Author), Daša Donša (Author), Jaša Veno Grujić (Author), Danijel Ivajnšič (Author)

Abstract

Pridelava oljk je ranljiv kmetijski sistem, primeren za študije vpliva podnebnih sprememb zaradi dolge življenjske dobe oljčnega drevesa, njegove občutljivosti na sušo in visoke temperature ter vse večje vloge oljčnih nasadov v gospodarstvu sredozemskih območij. S pomočjo prostorske analize smo ugotavljali, kakšna je podnebna ustreznost za gojenje oljk v Sloveniji in na Hrvaškem. Ocenjujemo vpliv bioklimatskih spremenljivk na razširjenost oljčnikov na tem območju, vrednotimo prihodnje podnebne pogoje za gojenje oljk, zaznavamo variabilnost modelnih podnebnih napovedi na primeru oljčnikov in identificiramo prihodnja ustrezna in neustrezna območja za gojenje oljk v Sloveniji in na Hrvaškem. Obravnavana podnebna scenarija RCP4.5 in RCP8.5, v primeru oljke, kažeta različen razvoj ustreznih površin za gojenje na raziskovanem območju. Model Mahalanobisove tipičnosti (MT) napoveduje krčenje ustreznih pogojev v severnem predelu območja. Model Podnebne ustreznosti pridelka (CCS) pa kaže največje razlike v podnebni ustreznosti za gojenje oljk na območju Dalmacije, kjer bo lahko v prihodnosti več ustreznih površin tudi v notranjosti celine. Dolgoročne podnebne napovedi so lahko na lokalnem nivoju dokaj nezanesljive. Za natančnejše napovedi ustreznih pogojev za gojenje oljke bi bile potrebne bolj poglobljene analize na regionalni ravni. Prav gotovo bo oljkam v prihodnosti ustrezalo toplejše ozračje, vendar je problematika večplastna.

Keywords

emisijski scenariji;modeli razširjenosti vrst;podnebna ustreznost;prostorske analize;bioklimatske spremenljivke;

Data

Language: Slovenian
Year of publishing:
Typology: 1.16 - Independent Scientific Component Part or a Chapter in a Monograph
Organization: UM FF - Faculty of Arts
Publisher: Univerzitetna založba Univerze v Mariboru
UDC: 581.1:551.58
COBISS: 120089603 Link will open in a new window
Parent publication: Primeri prostorskih analiz vplivov podnebnih sprememb
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Other data

Secondary language: English
Secondary title: Climate suitability modelling for olive grove cultivation (Olea Europaea) in the Eastern Adriatic (Slovenia, Croatia)
Secondary abstract: Olive production is a vulnerable agricultural system suitable for studying climate change impacts because of the longevity of the olive tree, its susceptibility to drought and high air/surface temperatures, and the growing role of olive products in the Mediterranean economy. With spatial analysis, we investigated climate suitability for olive cultivation in Slovenia and Croatia. We measured the impact of bioclimatic variables on the distribution of olive groves in this area, evaluated future climatic conditions for olive cultivation, detected variability in climate forecasts and identified future suitable and unsuitable olive growing areas in Slovenia and Croatia. We used the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, which indicated, different development patterns of suitable areas for olive tree cultivation. The Mahalanobis typicality (MT) model predicted a decrease in suitable climate conditions in the northern part of the area. The Crop Climate Suitability model (CCS), however, showed the largest differences in climate suitability for olive cultivation in Dalmatia, where more suitable areas, even more inland, can be expected in the future. More in-depth analyses at the regional level would be needed to develop more accurate predictions of suitable conditions for olive cultivation. A warmer atmosphere will certainly suit olives, but the problem is multifaceted.
Secondary keywords: emission scenarios;species distribution models;climate suitability;spatial analyses;bioclimatic variables;
Type (COBISS): Article
Pages: Str. 75-100
DOI: 10.18690/um.fnm.8.2022.4
ID: 23984446