Eric Andreas Thurm (Avtor), Laura Hernandez (Avtor), Andri Baltensweiler (Avtor), Szegin Ayan (Avtor), Ervin Rasztovits (Avtor), Kamil Bielak (Avtor), Tzvetan Mladenov Zlatanov (Avtor), David Hladnik (Avtor), Besim Balić (Avtor), Alexsandra Freudenschuss (Avtor)

Povzetek

This study estimates the present and future distribution potential of 12 thermophilic and rare tree species for Europe based on climate-soil sensitive species distribution models (SDMs), and compares them to the two major temperate and boreal tree species (Fagus sylvatica and Picea abies). We used European national forest inventory data with 1.3 million plots to predict the distribution of the 12 + 2 tree species in Europe today and under future warming scenarios of +2.9 and +4.5 °C. The SDMs that were used to calculate the distributions were in a first step only given climate variables for explanation. In a second step, deviations which could not be explained by the climate models were tested in an additional soil variable-based model. Site-index models were applied to the found species distribution to estimate the growth performance (site index) under the given climate. We find a northward shift of 461 km and 697 km for the thermophilic species over the regarded time period from 2060 to 2080 under a warming scenario of 2.9 °C and 4.5 °C, respectively. Potential winners of climatic warming have their distribution centroid below 48°N. Fagus sylvatica and Picea abies will lose great parts of their potential distribution range (approx. 55 and 60%, respectively). An index of area gain and growth performance revealed Ulmus laevis, Quercus rubra, Quercus cerris and Robinia pseudoacacia as interesting alternatives in managed temperate forests currently dominated by F. sylvatica and P. abies. The 12 investigated species are already in focus in forestry and it has been shown that the changing climate creates conditions for a targeted promotion in European forests. Nevertheless, area winners exhibited lower growth performances. So, forest conversion with these warm-adapted species goes hand in hand with loss of overall growth performance compared to current species composition. So, the results are a premise for a further discussion on the ecological consequences and the consistency with forest socio-economic goals and conservation policies.

Ključne besede

redke drevesne vrste;podnebje;tla;modeli;biogeografske regije;rare tree species;climate;soil;models;biogeographical regions;

Podatki

Jezik: Angleški jezik
Leto izida:
Tipologija: 1.01 - Izvirni znanstveni članek
Organizacija: UL BF - Biotehniška fakulteta
UDK: 630*11:630*17
COBISS: 5157286 Povezava se bo odprla v novem oknu
ISSN: 0378-1127
Št. ogledov: 645
Št. prenosov: 176
Ocena: 0 (0 glasov)
Metapodatki: JSON JSON-RDF JSON-LD TURTLE N-TRIPLES XML RDFA MICRODATA DC-XML DC-RDF RDF

Ostali podatki

Sekundarni jezik: Slovenski jezik
Sekundarne ključne besede: redke drevesne vrste;podnebje;tla;modeli;biogeografske regije;
Strani: str. 485-497
Zvezek: ǂVol. ǂ430
Čas izdaje: 15. Dec. 2018
DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2018.08.028
ID: 11411906